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Championship · Regular Season - 42 April 11, 2026 18:00
Southampton
#5 · 77 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Derby
#8 · 69 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Southampton
L. Scienza (ast. F. Azaz) 62'
T. Harwood-Bellis (ast. R. Manning) 69'
38' C. Morris
Match statistics
12
Total shots
6
5
Shots on target
4
1.64
Actual xG
0.91
3
Saves
3
62%
Possession
38%
6
Corners
2
20
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
9'
O. Fraulo / B. Clark ↕
38'
C. Morris⚽
53'
D. Sanderson
55'
O. Fraulo
⚽L. Scienza · ast. F. Azaz
62'
↕ R. Stewart / C. Larin
64'
↕ T. Fellows / K. Matsuki
64'
66'
O. Eames / J. Banel ↕
67'
S. Langas / D. Ozoh ↕
67'
C. Forsyth / M. Johnston ↕
⚽T. Harwood-Bellis · ast. R. Manning
69'
↕ L. Scienza / S. Edozie
75'
↕ F. Azaz / S. Charles
75'
84'
L. Salvesen / L. Travis ↕
↕ J. Bree / N. Wood
87'
C. Larin
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
58.26%
Southampton ←
22.43%
X
19.31%
Derby
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Southampton) 58.26% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Southampton
2.03
1.64
-0.39
Derby
1.32
0.91
-0.41
Southampton dominated by xG (1.64 vs 0.91). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Coventry Coventry 45 92
2 Ipswich Ipswich 45 81
3 Millwall Millwall 45 80
4 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 45 79
5 Southampton Southampton 45 77
6 Wrexham Wrexham 45 70
7 Hull City Hull City 45 70
8 Derby Derby 45 69
9 Norwich Norwich 45 65
10 Birmingham Birmingham 45 63
11 Swansea Swansea 45 61
12 Preston Preston 45 60
13 Bristol City Bristol City 45 59
14 QPR QPR 45 58
15 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 45 57
16 Watford Watford 45 57
17 Stoke City Stoke City 45 55
18 Portsmouth Portsmouth 45 54
19 Charlton Charlton 45 53
20 Blackburn Blackburn 45 52
21 West Brom West Brom 45 51
22 Oxford United Oxford United 45 47
23 Leicester Leicester 45 43
24 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 45 -3
Lineups
Southampton Southampton 4-2-3-1
41 Daniel Peretz Daniel Peretz G 7.90
3 Ryan Manning Ryan Manning 1 👟 D 8.00
5 Jack Stephens Jack Stephens D 7.30
6 Taylor Harwood-Bellis Taylor Harwood-Bellis 1 ⚽ D 8.90
14 James Bree James Bree 87' D 6.30
4 Flynn Downes Flynn Downes M 7.70
20 Caspar Jander Caspar Jander M 7.90
13 Leo Scienza Leo Scienza 1 ⚽ 75' M 8.90
10 Finn Azaz Finn Azaz 1 👟 75' M 7.30
18 Tom Fellows Tom Fellows 64' M 6.20
11 Ross Stewart Ross Stewart 64' F 6.50
Bench
19 Cameron Archer Cameron Archer F
48 Cameron Bragg Cameron Bragg M
9 Cyle Larin Cyle Larin 26' F 6.00
25 George Long George Long G
27 Kuryu Matsuki Kuryu Matsuki 26' M 6.90
15 Nathan Wood Nathan Wood 9' D 6.20
23 Samuel Edozie Samuel Edozie 15' M 6.70
24 Shea Charles Shea Charles 15' M 6.60
34 Welington Welington D
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
12 Richard O'Donnell Richard O'Donnell G 7.20
22 Max Johnston Max Johnston 67' D 6.30
5 Matthew Clarke Matthew Clarke D 6.90
28 Dion Sanderson Dion Sanderson D 6.20
23 Joe Ward Joe Ward D 6.60
18 David Ozoh David Ozoh 67' M 6.70
27 Lewis Travis Lewis Travis 84' M 7.00
42 Bobby Clark Bobby Clark 9' M 6.70
19 Sammie Szmodics Sammie Szmodics M 6.70
34 Jaydon Banel Jaydon Banel 66' M 6.50
9 Carlton Morris Carlton Morris 1 ⚽ F 7.50
Bench
3 Craig Forsyth Craig Forsyth 23' D 6.20
54 Cruz Allen Cruz Allen M
4 Danny Batth Danny Batth D
44 Isaac Gordon Isaac Gordon D
31 Josh Vickers Josh Vickers G
15 Lars-Jørgen Salvesen Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 12' F 6.30
29 Oscar Fraulo Oscar Fraulo 81' M 6.70
37 Owen Eames Owen Eames 24' M 6.50
6 Sondre Langås Sondre Langås 23' D 6.30
Best on the pitch
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
Taylor Harwood-Bellis
D · Southampton
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 53 pass
Leo Scienza
Leo Scienza
M · Southampton
8.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 26 pass
Ryan Manning
Ryan Manning
D · Southampton
8.00
1 👟
1 shots · 47 pass
Daniel Peretz
Daniel Peretz
G · Southampton
7.90
· 33 pass
Caspar Jander
Caspar Jander
M · Southampton
7.90
· 63 pass
Flynn Downes
Flynn Downes
M · Southampton
7.70
· 51 pass
Southampton Southampton — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Daniel Peretz G 90 7.90 — — — 33 22% — — —
Ryan Manning D 90 8.00 — 1 1 47 38% 2 — —
Jack Stephens D 90 7.30 — — — 45 42% 1 — —
Taylor Harwood-Bellis D 90 8.90 1 — 2 53 48% — — —
James Bree D 87 6.30 — — 1 32 31% 1 — —
Flynn Downes M 90 7.70 — — — 51 45% 2 — —
Caspar Jander M 90 7.90 — — — 63 55% 6 — —
Leo Scienza M 75 8.90 1 — 2 26 20% 1 — —
Finn Azaz M 75 7.30 — 1 3 29 22% 5 — —
Tom Fellows M 64 6.20 — — 1 23 20% 1 — —
Ross Stewart F 64 6.50 — — — 16 11% — — —
Cyle Larin F 26 6.00 — — 1 14 10% — 1 —
Kuryu Matsuki M 26 6.90 — — — 16 13% — — —
Nathan Wood D 9 6.20 — — — — — — — —
Samuel Edozie M 15 6.70 — — 1 3 2% 1 — —
Shea Charles M 15 6.60 — — — 9 7% — — —
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Richard O'Donnell G 90 7.20 — — — 35 24% — — —
Max Johnston D 67 6.30 — — 1 10 6% 2 — —
Matthew Clarke D 90 6.90 — — — 42 30% 5 — —
Dion Sanderson D 90 6.20 — — — 25 21% 2 1 —
Joe Ward D 90 6.60 — — — 29 23% 1 — —
David Ozoh M 67 6.70 — — — 12 10% 3 — —
Lewis Travis M 84 7.00 — — — 33 29% 5 — —
Bobby Clark M 9 6.70 — — — 2 1% — — —
Sammie Szmodics M 90 6.70 — — 2 14 12% — — —
Jaydon Banel M 66 6.50 — — 1 13 11% — — —
Carlton Morris F 90 7.50 1 — 2 22 14% — — —
Craig Forsyth D 23 6.20 — — — 18 8% — — —
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen F 12 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Oscar Fraulo M 81 6.70 — — — 20 15% 2 1 —
Owen Eames M 24 6.50 — — — 3 3% — — —
Sondre Langås D 23 6.30 — — — 11 9% 2 — —