Premier Division
Irlanda
· Season 2026
54.50%
1X2 accuracy · 22 predictions (3 months)
Matchday 25 of 18
139%
🏆
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 29 Jul 2026
Champion
Champions League
Conference League
Relegation Playoff
Relegation
| # | Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
71 (56–83)
pos. ~1.2°
|
C6 · T5
ELO 1489
|
▲1% | ||
| 2 |
63 (45–76)
pos. ~2.6°
|
C5 · T6
ELO 1492
|
▼0% | ||
| 3 |
64 (48–76)
pos. ~2.4°
|
C6 · T5
ELO 1487
|
▼1% | ||
| 4 |
52 (36–67)
pos. ~4.5°
|
C6 · T5
ELO 1499
|
· | ||
| 5 |
49 (36–65)
pos. ~5.0°
|
C5 · T7
ELO 1498
|
· | ||
| 6 |
44 (30–59)
pos. ~6.3°
|
C5 · T6
ELO 1500
|
· | ||
| 7 |
42 (28–58)
pos. ~6.9°
|
C6 · T6
ELO 1505
|
· | ||
| 8 |
37 (26–53)
pos. ~8.1°
|
C6 · T5
ELO 1509
|
· | ||
| 9 |
37 (22–52)
pos. ~8.3°
|
C6 · T5
ELO 1510
|
▲0% | ||
| 10 |
29 (21–49)
pos. ~9.8°
|
C5 · T6
ELO 1504
|
▲0% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 11 | 55.00% | 36.4% | -18.60% |
| 60–70%% | 11 | 65.00% | 54.5% | -10.50% |
| 70–100%% | 3 | 85.00% | 66.7% | -18.30% |
Based on 25 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Bohemians
|
14 | 10.53 | +3.47 | |
| 2 |
Waterford
|
12 | 9.57 | +2.43 | |
| 3 |
Drogheda United
|
8 | 5.71 | +2.29 | |
| 4 |
Derry City
|
8 | 7.16 | +0.84 | |
| 5 |
Sligo Rovers
|
6 | 5.80 | +0.20 | |
| 6 |
Dundalk
|
6 | 5.91 | +0.09 | |
| 7 |
Galway United
|
7 | 7.71 | -0.71 | |
| 8 |
Shamrock Rovers
|
6 | 7.25 | -1.25 | |
| 9 |
Shelbourne
|
6 | 7.36 | -1.36 | |
| 10 |
St Patrick's Athl.
|
3 | 4.93 | -1.93 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Premier Division?
For Premier Division, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Premier Division?
Accuracy for Premier Division is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Premier Division using per-league historical data.
How are Premier Division season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.