Premier Division
Irlanda
· Season 2026
40.00%
1X2 accuracy · 15 predictions (3 months)
🏆
League Table + end of season projections
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF–GA | GD | Pts | Form | Projected Pts | Champion | Champions League | Conference League | Relegation Playoff | Relegation | Schedule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 32–19 | +13 | 40 |
S
V
V
S
S
|
67 (48–83)
pos. ~1.5°
|
|
|
|
— | — |
C8
·
T7
ELO 1489
|
| 2 | St Patrick's Athl. | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 33–17 | +16 | 35 |
V
S
P
S
V
|
63 (40–83)
pos. ~2.1°
|
|
|
|
— | — |
C8
·
T8
ELO 1496
|
| 3 | Bohemians | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 32–25 | +7 | 34 |
S
V
S
V
V
|
58 (40–77)
pos. ~3.3°
|
|
|
|
— | — |
C8
·
T7
ELO 1499
|
| 4 | Dundalk | 20 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 32–28 | +4 | 32 |
V
V
P
V
S
|
53 (37–72)
pos. ~4.3°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C8
·
T8
ELO 1503
|
| 5 | Shelbourne | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 29–27 | +2 | 29 |
V
P
P
V
V
|
52 (34–70)
pos. ~4.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C7
·
T8
ELO 1500
|
| 6 | Derry City | 21 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 26–24 | +2 | 25 |
V
S
P
P
P
|
47 (31–67)
pos. ~6.0°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C7
·
T8
ELO 1499
|
| 7 | Galway United | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 26–30 | -4 | 21 |
S
P
S
V
S
|
41 (24–60)
pos. ~7.2°
|
— | — |
|
|
|
C8
·
T8
ELO 1504
|
| 8 | Drogheda United | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 25–34 | -9 | 21 |
S
P
P
S
S
|
39 (23–58)
pos. ~7.9°
|
— | — |
|
|
|
C8
·
T8
ELO 1509
|
| 9 | Sligo Rovers | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 15–31 | -16 | 19 |
S
S
V
S
P
|
34 (19–55)
pos. ~9.1°
|
— | — |
|
|
|
C8
·
T8
ELO 1512
|
| 10 | Waterford | 20 | 2 | 8 | 10 | 25–40 | -15 | 14 |
V
P
S
V
P
|
33 (18–56)
pos. ~9.1°
|
— | — |
|
|
|
C8
·
T8
ELO 1516
|
Champion
Champions League
Conference League
Relegation Playoff
Relegation
% = probability of reaching that zone or better ·
10,000 simulations ·
14 Jun 2026
Projection trend
Shamrock Rovers
65%
+0%
Title
St Patrick's Athl.
28%
=
Title
Bohemians
5%
0%
Title
Dundalk
0%
=
Relegation
Shelbourne
0%
=
Relegation
Derry City
0%
=
Relegation
Galway United
4%
0%
Relegation
Drogheda United
20%
-1%
Relegation Playoff
Sligo Rovers
42%
0%
Relegation
Waterford
44%
+0%
Relegation
Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
19 Jun
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
19 Jun
Galway United
Derry City
19 Jun
Bohemians
Dundalk
19 Jun
Drogheda United
Shelbourne
19 Jun
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
22 Jun
Shelbourne
Bohemians
22 Jun
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
26 Jun
Bohemians
St Patrick's Athl.
26 Jun
Dundalk
Waterford
26 Jun
Derry City
Drogheda United
Recent results
12 Jun
2–1
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
12 Jun
2–0
1
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
12 Jun
4–0
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
12 Jun
4–1
Derry City
Bohemians
12 Jun
0–1
Galway United
Dundalk
29 May
1–0
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
29 May
1–3
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
29 May
3–3
Drogheda United
Waterford
Player statistics
⚽ Top scorers
1
8
R. Edmondson
St Patrick's Athl.
2
8
M. Doyle
Drogheda United
3
8
T. Lonergan
Waterford
4
7
H. Wood
Shelbourne
5
7
C. Whelan
Bohemians
6
6
K. Twardek
Galway United
7
6
G. Arubi
Dundalk
8
6
J. Martin
Shelbourne
9
6
D. Horgan
Dundalk
10
6
G. Burke
Shamrock Rovers
👟 Assists
1
6
D. Horgan
Dundalk
2
5
K. Twardek
Galway United
3
4
J. McGovern
Shamrock Rovers
4
4
B. Kavanagh
Drogheda United
5
4
M. Strods
Bohemians
6
4
D. Hurley
Galway United
7
3
H. Wood
Shelbourne
8
3
G. Arubi
Dundalk
9
3
W. Fitzgerald
Sligo Rovers
10
3
K. Leavy
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨 Yellow cards
1
8
D. Devoy
Bohemians
2
8
S. Farrell
Drogheda United
3
6
A. Dervin
Dundalk
4
6
M. Healy
Shamrock Rovers
5
6
D. Kelly
Shelbourne
6
5
A. O'Reilly
Derry City
7
5
B. Burns
Dundalk
8
5
B. Fleming
Derry City
9
5
J. Martin
Shelbourne
10
5
K. McInroy
Shelbourne
Model calibration for this league
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 8 | 55.00% | 25.0% | -30.00% |
| 60–70%% | 5 | 65.00% | 60.0% | -5.00% |
Based on 15 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Waterford
|
12 | 8.95 | +3.05 |
|
| 2 |
Bohemians
|
11 | 9.28 | +1.72 |
|
| 3 |
Drogheda United
|
6 | 4.70 | +1.30 |
|
| 4 |
Derry City
|
7 | 5.85 | +1.15 |
|
| 5 |
Galway United
|
7 | 6.44 | +0.56 |
|
| 6 |
Dundalk
|
5 | 4.53 | +0.47 |
|
| 7 |
Sligo Rovers
|
4 | 4.11 | -0.11 |
|
| 8 |
Shamrock Rovers
|
5 | 5.80 | -0.80 |
|
| 9 |
St Patrick's Athl.
|
2 | 2.95 | -0.95 |
|
| 10 |
Shelbourne
|
6 | 6.98 | -0.98 |
|
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Premier Division?
For Premier Division, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Premier Division?
Accuracy for Premier Division is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Premier Division using per-league historical data.
How are Premier Division season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.