Matchday 6 of 30
20%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
Champions League
Conference League
Relegation Playoff
Relegation
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
60 (33–80)
pos. ~2.3°
|
C12 · T12
ELO 1514
|
▼3% | ||
|
61 (40–80)
pos. ~2.0°
|
C13 · T11
ELO 1512
|
▲8% | ||
|
58 (36–79)
pos. ~2.6°
|
C12 · T12
ELO 1512
|
▼5% | ||
|
48 (25–71)
pos. ~5.4°
|
C12 · T13
ELO 1525
|
▼0% | ||
|
50 (25–72)
pos. ~4.8°
|
C12 · T12
ELO 1519
|
· | ||
|
40 (20–64)
pos. ~8.4°
|
C11 · T13
ELO 1527
|
▲1% | ||
|
41 (18–67)
pos. ~8.0°
|
C12 · T12
ELO 1524
|
▼0% | ||
|
39 (19–68)
pos. ~8.8°
|
C12 · T12
ELO 1523
|
▼0% | ||
|
40 (18–64)
pos. ~8.2°
|
C11 · T13
ELO 1522
|
▼0% | ||
|
32 (12–55)
pos. ~11.8°
|
C12 · T12
ELO 1531
|
▼3% | ||
|
36 (16–60)
pos. ~10.1°
|
C11 · T13
ELO 1520
|
▲0% | ||
|
39 (16–61)
pos. ~8.9°
|
C12 · T13
ELO 1519
|
▼0% | ||
|
31 (11–55)
pos. ~12.0°
|
C11 · T13
ELO 1515
|
▲10% | ||
|
24 (6–45)
pos. ~14.5°
|
C15 · T9
ELO 1531
|
▼3% | ||
|
28 (11–51)
pos. ~13.2°
|
C13 · T11
ELO 1527
|
▼2% | ||
|
22 (4–42)
pos. ~15.1°
|
C12 · T12
ELO 1527
|
▼2% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 11 | 55.00% | 54.5% | -0.50% |
| 60–70%% | 8 | 65.00% | 37.5% | -27.50% |
| 70–100%% | 13 | 85.00% | 84.6% | -0.40% |
Based on 32 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Premier League?
For Premier League, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Premier League?
Accuracy for Premier League is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Premier League using per-league historical data.
How are Premier League season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.