Brasileirão Série B
Brasile
· Season 2026
81.30%
1X2 accuracy · 32 predictions (3 months)
Matchday 28 of 38
74%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
Promotion
Promotion Playoff
Relegation
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
70 (57–80)
pos. ~1.9°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1505
|
▼3% | ||
|
67 (53–80)
pos. ~3.0°
|
C4 · T6
ELO 1490
|
▲1% | ||
|
65 (52–78)
pos. ~4.0°
|
C6 · T4
ELO 1510
|
▲1% | ||
|
65 (51–78)
pos. ~4.2°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1499
|
▲1% | ||
|
59 (47–73)
pos. ~7.9°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1492
|
▲0% | ||
|
63 (49–76)
pos. ~5.1°
|
C4 · T6
ELO 1504
|
▲0% | ||
|
59 (44–74)
pos. ~7.8°
|
C5 · T6
ELO 1496
|
▲1% | ||
|
60 (47–75)
pos. ~7.0°
|
C6 · T5
ELO 1497
|
· | ||
|
57 (43–74)
pos. ~8.8°
|
C5 · T6
ELO 1519
|
▼3% | ||
|
55 (40–70)
pos. ~10.5°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1506
|
· | ||
|
57 (44–70)
pos. ~9.0°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1493
|
▼0% | ||
|
52 (40–66)
pos. ~12.3°
|
C6 · T4
ELO 1505
|
▼4% | ||
|
52 (39–66)
pos. ~12.2°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1525
|
▼5% | ||
|
52 (38–67)
pos. ~12.2°
|
C6 · T5
ELO 1520
|
▼0% | ||
|
44 (32–60)
pos. ~15.6°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1508
|
▼1% | ||
|
42 (31–57)
pos. ~16.4°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1498
|
▲18% | ||
|
44 (31–60)
pos. ~15.8°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1494
|
▼6% | ||
|
38 (26–52)
pos. ~17.5°
|
C6 · T5
ELO 1494
|
▼1% | ||
|
24 (17–38)
pos. ~19.0°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1515
|
· | ||
|
14 (10–26)
pos. ~20.0°
|
C5 · T6
ELO 1521
|
· |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 15 | 55.00% | 66.7% | +11.70% |
| 60–70%% | 10 | 65.00% | 90.0% | +25.00% |
| 70–100%% | 7 | 85.00% | 100.0% | +15.00% |
Based on 32 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Vila Nova
|
33 | 24.60 | +8.40 | |
| 2 |
São Bernardo
|
32 | 24.34 | +7.66 | |
| 3 |
CRB
|
34 | 30.13 | +3.87 | |
| 4 |
Sport Recife
|
31 | 27.57 | +3.43 | |
| 5 |
Novorizontino
|
32 | 29.36 | +2.64 | |
| 6 |
Juventude
|
23 | 20.45 | +2.55 | |
| 7 |
Operario-PR
|
28 | 25.59 | +2.41 | |
| 8 |
Athletic Club
|
22 | 20.61 | +1.39 | |
| 9 |
Ceara
|
20 | 20.26 | -0.26 | |
| 10 |
Botafogo SP
|
23 | 23.43 | -0.43 | |
| 11 |
Avai
|
18 | 19.09 | -1.09 | |
| 12 |
Goias
|
19 | 21.22 | -2.22 | |
| 13 |
Criciuma
|
16 | 18.37 | -2.37 | |
| 14 |
Londrina
|
13 | 15.42 | -2.42 | |
| 15 |
Cuiaba
|
20 | 22.52 | -2.52 | |
| 16 |
Fortaleza EC
|
26 | 28.72 | -2.72 | |
| 17 |
Nautico Recife
|
28 | 31.01 | -3.01 | |
| 18 |
Ponte Preta
|
13 | 18.99 | -5.99 | |
| 19 |
Atletico Goianiense
|
23 | 29.94 | -6.94 | |
| 20 |
America Mineiro
|
13 | 20.60 | -7.60 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Brasileirão Série B?
For Brasileirão Série B, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Brasileirão Série B?
Accuracy for Brasileirão Série B is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Brasileirão Série B using per-league historical data.
How are Brasileirão Série B season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
CRB
Sport Recife
Novorizontino
Juventude
Operario-PR
Athletic Club
Ceara
Botafogo SP
Avai
Goias
Criciuma
Londrina
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
Atletico Goianiense
America Mineiro