Matchday 8 of 34
24%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Play Offs
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
34 (19–44)
pos. ~2.9°
|
C5 · T4
ELO 1494
|
▲8% | ||
|
34 (20–46)
pos. ~2.8°
|
C4 · T6
ELO 1491
|
▲0% | ||
|
33 (17–46)
pos. ~3.3°
|
C5 · T5
ELO 1505
|
▲0% | ||
|
27 (15–42)
pos. ~6.9°
|
C3 · T6
ELO 1508
|
▲1% | ||
|
30 (16–43)
pos. ~5.1°
|
C6 · T4
ELO 1480
|
▼1% | ||
|
22 (10–37)
pos. ~10.6°
|
C4 · T5
ELO 1497
|
▼6% | ||
|
28 (14–43)
pos. ~6.3°
|
C4 · T6
ELO 1485
|
▲2% | ||
|
27 (14–41)
pos. ~7.5°
|
C6 · T4
ELO 1495
|
▼0% | ||
|
25 (13–40)
pos. ~8.8°
|
C5 · T4
ELO 1493
|
▲1% | ||
|
26 (12–38)
pos. ~8.0°
|
C5 · T4
ELO 1494
|
▲0% | ||
|
24 (11–38)
pos. ~9.4°
|
C5 · T4
ELO 1481
|
▼5% | ||
|
22 (10–37)
pos. ~10.7°
|
C4 · T6
ELO 1513
|
▲1% | ||
|
19 (8–32)
pos. ~13.4°
|
C4 · T5
ELO 1491
|
· | ||
|
18 (7–32)
pos. ~13.6°
|
C5 · T4
ELO 1511
|
· | ||
|
18 (7–31)
pos. ~13.8°
|
C4 · T5
ELO 1482
|
· | ||
|
17 (6–31)
pos. ~14.2°
|
C5 · T4
ELO 1477
|
· | ||
|
13 (4–29)
pos. ~16.2°
|
C5 · T4
ELO 1498
|
· | ||
|
7 (0–20)
pos. ~17.9°
|
C5 · T4
ELO 1486
|
· |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 10 | 55.00% | 40.0% | -15.00% |
| 60–70%% | 8 | 65.00% | 62.5% | -2.50% |
| 70–100%% | 5 | 85.00% | 60.0% | -25.00% |
Based on 23 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Monterrey
|
12 | 8.53 | +3.47 | |
| 2 |
Puebla
|
9 | 5.54 | +3.46 | |
| 3 |
Club America
|
12 | 9.49 | +2.51 | |
| 4 |
Atlas
|
9 | 6.63 | +2.37 | |
| 5 |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
|
8 | 5.78 | +2.22 | |
| 6 |
CF Pachuca
|
8 | 5.99 | +2.01 | |
| 7 |
Toluca
|
8 | 6.96 | +1.04 | |
| 8 |
Leon
|
8 | 7.07 | +0.93 | |
| 9 |
Atlante FC
|
6 | 5.16 | +0.84 | |
| 10 |
Club Queretaro
|
9 | 8.42 | +0.58 | |
| 11 |
FC Juarez
|
3 | 3.02 | -0.02 | |
| 12 |
Atletico San Luis
|
5 | 5.08 | -0.08 | |
| 13 |
Club Tijuana
|
6 | 6.84 | -0.84 | |
| 14 |
Cruz Azul
|
7 | 8.51 | -1.51 | |
| 15 |
Necaxa
|
7 | 9.20 | -2.20 | |
| 16 |
Tigres UANL
|
6 | 8.37 | -2.37 | |
| 17 |
Santos Laguna
|
4 | 6.74 | -2.74 | |
| 18 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
4 | 7.21 | -3.21 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Liga MX?
For Liga MX, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Liga MX?
Accuracy for Liga MX is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Liga MX using per-league historical data.
How are Liga MX season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.
Monterrey
Puebla
Club America
Atlas
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
CF Pachuca
Toluca
Leon
Atlante FC
Club Queretaro
FC Juarez
Atletico San Luis
Club Tijuana
Cruz Azul
Necaxa
Tigres UANL
Santos Laguna
Guadalajara Chivas