Matchday 6 of 22
27%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
Champions League
Europa League
Conference League
Relegation
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
47 (28–63)
pos. ~1.9°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1539
|
▲0% | ||
|
46 (27–61)
pos. ~2.1°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1533
|
▲0% | ||
|
44 (25–60)
pos. ~2.5°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1533
|
▼1% | ||
|
37 (19–55)
pos. ~4.0°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1533
|
▲1% | ||
|
29 (13–49)
pos. ~6.6°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1541
|
▼0% | ||
|
27 (7–47)
pos. ~7.5°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1542
|
▲0% | ||
|
24 (8–45)
pos. ~8.6°
|
C9 · T7
ELO 1543
|
▼1% | ||
|
24 (7–44)
pos. ~8.7°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1539
|
▼1% | ||
|
24 (8–42)
pos. ~8.4°
|
C7 · T9
ELO 1535
|
▲1% | ||
|
24 (7–47)
pos. ~8.6°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1534
|
▲0% | ||
|
22 (6–39)
pos. ~9.6°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1548
|
▲0% | ||
|
22 (6–40)
pos. ~9.6°
|
C8 · T8
ELO 1538
|
▲0% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 7 | 55.00% | 57.1% | +2.10% |
| 60–70%% | 10 | 65.00% | 50.0% | -15.00% |
Based on 19 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rapid Vienna
|
14 | 10.62 | +3.38 | |
| 2 |
Lask Linz
|
9 | 8.07 | +0.93 | |
| 3 |
Wolfsberger AC
|
5 | 4.43 | +0.57 | |
| 4 |
Austria Vienna
|
3 | 2.45 | +0.55 | |
| 5 |
WSG Wattens
|
6 | 5.55 | +0.45 | |
| 6 |
Austria Lustenau
|
5 | 4.67 | +0.33 | |
| 7 |
TSV Hartberg
|
5 | 5.33 | -0.33 | |
| 8 |
Ried
|
6 | 6.95 | -0.95 | |
| 9 |
Sturm Graz
|
6 | 7.47 | -1.47 | |
| 10 |
SCR Altach
|
4 | 5.70 | -1.70 | |
| 11 |
Grazer AK
|
2 | 3.97 | -1.97 | |
| 12 |
Red Bull Salzburg
|
9 | 12.22 | -3.22 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Bundesliga?
For Bundesliga, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Bundesliga?
Accuracy for Bundesliga is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Bundesliga using per-league historical data.
How are Bundesliga season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.