72.20%
1X2 accuracy · 18 predictions (3 months)
🏆
League Table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF–GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71–27 | +44 | 85 |
V
V
V
V
V
|
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 77–35 | +42 | 78 |
S
P
V
V
P
|
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 69–50 | +19 | 71 |
V
V
P
V
V
|
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56–49 | +7 | 65 |
V
V
P
S
S
|
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 63–53 | +10 | 60 |
P
S
P
S
V
|
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58–54 | +4 | 57 |
P
P
V
V
P
|
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 42–48 | -6 | 54 |
V
V
P
P
S
|
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 52–46 | +6 | 53 |
S
S
V
S
V
|
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 55–52 | +3 | 53 |
P
P
S
V
S
|
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58–52 | +6 | 52 |
S
V
P
S
S
|
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 47–51 | -4 | 52 |
V
P
S
S
V
|
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53–55 | -2 | 49 |
S
V
P
V
S
|
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47–50 | -3 | 49 |
S
S
P
P
S
|
| 14 | Leeds | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 49–56 | -7 | 47 |
S
V
P
V
P
|
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 41–51 | -10 | 45 |
S
P
S
P
S
|
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 48–51 | -3 | 44 |
P
S
P
V
V
|
| 17 | Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 48–57 | -9 | 41 |
V
S
P
V
V
|
| 18 | West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 46–65 | -19 | 39 |
V
S
S
S
V
|
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 38–75 | -37 | 22 |
P
S
P
S
S
|
| 20 | Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 27–68 | -41 | 20 |
P
P
S
P
S
|
Champion
Champions League
Europa League
Conference League
Relegation
Player statistics
⚽ Top scorers
1
27
E. Haaland
Manchester City
2
22
Thiago
Brentford
3
16
O. Watkins
Aston Villa
4
15
João Pedro
Chelsea
5
15
M. Gibbs-White
Nottingham Forest
6
14
V. Gyökeres
Arsenal
7
14
D. Calvert-Lewin
Leeds
8
13
D. Welbeck
Brighton
9
13
E. Kroupi
Bournemouth
10
12
J. Mateta
Crystal Palace
👟 Assists
1
21
Bruno Fernandes
Manchester United
2
12
R. Cherki
Manchester City
3
11
J. Bowen
West Ham
4
8
E. Haaland
Manchester City
5
7
H. Wilson
Fulham
6
7
Mohamed Salah
Liverpool
7
7
D. Szoboszlai
Liverpool
8
7
J. Garner
Everton
9
6
M. Rogers
Aston Villa
10
6
L. Trossard
Arsenal
🟨 Yellow cards
1
12
J. Garner
Everton
2
12
André
Wolves
3
12
Y. Mosquera
Wolves
4
11
M. Caicedo
Chelsea
5
10
C. Romero
Tottenham
6
10
Casemiro
Manchester United
7
10
D. Burn
Newcastle
8
10
Bernardo Silva
Manchester City
9
10
E. Fernández
Chelsea
10
10
João Gomes
Wolves
Model calibration for this league
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 4 | 55.00% | 100.0% | +45.00% |
| 60–70%% | 8 | 65.00% | 50.0% | -15.00% |
| 70–100%% | 6 | 85.00% | 83.3% | -1.70% |
Based on 18 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Aston Villa
|
56 | 47.44 | +8.56 |
|
| 2 |
Tottenham
|
48 | 40.72 | +7.28 |
|
| 3 |
Manchester City
|
77 | 70.23 | +6.77 |
|
| 4 |
Arsenal
|
71 | 64.88 | +6.12 |
|
| 5 |
Burnley
|
38 | 32.48 | +5.52 |
|
| 6 |
Manchester United
|
69 | 64.98 | +4.02 |
|
| 7 |
Sunderland
|
42 | 39.01 | +2.99 |
|
| 8 |
Liverpool
|
63 | 60.54 | +2.46 |
|
| 9 |
Nottingham Forest
|
48 | 46.27 | +1.73 |
|
| 10 |
Everton
|
47 | 46.30 | +0.70 |
|
| 11 |
West Ham
|
46 | 45.68 | +0.32 |
|
| 12 |
Fulham
|
47 | 47.94 | -0.94 |
|
| 13 |
Bournemouth
|
58 | 61.39 | -3.39 |
|
| 14 |
Newcastle
|
53 | 56.82 | -3.82 |
|
| 15 |
Brentford
|
55 | 59.79 | -4.79 |
|
| 16 |
Brighton
|
52 | 56.92 | -4.92 |
|
| 17 |
Leeds
|
49 | 54.38 | -5.38 |
|
| 18 |
Wolves
|
27 | 35.37 | -8.37 |
|
| 19 |
Chelsea
|
58 | 66.46 | -8.46 |
|
| 20 |
Crystal Palace
|
41 | 57.93 | -16.93 |
|
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Premier League?
For Premier League, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Premier League?
Accuracy for Premier League is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Premier League using per-league historical data.
How are Premier League season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.