League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
Champions League
Europa League
Conference League
Relegation Playoff
Relegation
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
79 (55–100)
pos. ~1.4°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1513
|
▼1% | ||
|
70 (41–92)
pos. ~2.9°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1521
|
▲1% | ||
|
69 (44–92)
pos. ~3.0°
|
C15 · T13
ELO 1527
|
▲0% | ||
|
61 (36–84)
pos. ~4.8°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1526
|
▲1% | ||
|
64 (36–87)
pos. ~4.1°
|
C15 · T14
ELO 1518
|
▼0% | ||
|
55 (31–80)
pos. ~6.3°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1523
|
▼0% | ||
|
46 (22–71)
pos. ~9.4°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1516
|
▼0% | ||
|
47 (23–74)
pos. ~9.0°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1521
|
▼0% | ||
|
46 (23–71)
pos. ~9.5°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1519
|
▲0% | ||
|
44 (19–72)
pos. ~10.1°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1529
|
▲0% | ||
|
42 (16–67)
pos. ~11.0°
|
C13 · T15
ELO 1521
|
· | ||
|
37 (11–62)
pos. ~13.1°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1524
|
▲0% | ||
|
38 (12–68)
pos. ~12.5°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1525
|
▲1% | ||
|
39 (14–70)
pos. ~12.5°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1518
|
▲0% | ||
|
33 (9–59)
pos. ~14.9°
|
C13 · T15
ELO 1524
|
▲1% | ||
|
28 (9–53)
pos. ~16.3°
|
C14 · T14
ELO 1524
|
▲1% | ||
|
33 (9–60)
pos. ~14.8°
|
C14 · T15
ELO 1523
|
▼2% | ||
|
30 (8–54)
pos. ~15.7°
|
C15 · T13
ELO 1519
|
▼1% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 9 | 55.00% | 66.7% | +11.70% |
| 60–70%% | 11 | 65.00% | 63.6% | -1.40% |
| 70–100%% | 5 | 85.00% | 100.0% | +15.00% |
Based on 25 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Fortuna Sittard
|
8 | 3.68 | +4.32 | |
| 2 |
GO Ahead Eagles
|
9 | 4.76 | +4.24 | |
| 3 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
15 | 11.97 | +3.03 | |
| 4 |
Ajax
|
8 | 5.34 | +2.66 | |
| 5 |
Groningen
|
9 | 7.31 | +1.69 | |
| 6 |
NEC Nijmegen
|
8 | 6.56 | +1.44 | |
| 7 |
Twente
|
7 | 5.57 | +1.43 | |
| 8 |
Sparta Rotterdam
|
6 | 4.72 | +1.28 | |
| 9 |
Heerenveen
|
5 | 3.83 | +1.17 | |
| 10 |
ADO Den Haag
|
4 | 3.17 | +0.83 | |
| 11 |
Utrecht
|
6 | 5.33 | +0.67 | |
| 12 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
8 | 8.00 | +0.00 | |
| 13 |
PEC Zwolle
|
4 | 4.10 | -0.10 | |
| 14 |
Willem II
|
4 | 4.64 | -0.64 | |
| 15 |
Cambuur
|
4 | 4.77 | -0.77 | |
| 16 |
Telstar
|
3 | 3.99 | -0.99 | |
| 17 |
Feyenoord
|
10 | 11.34 | -1.34 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Eredivisie?
For Eredivisie, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Eredivisie?
Accuracy for Eredivisie is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Eredivisie using per-league historical data.
How are Eredivisie season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
PSV Eindhoven
Ajax
Groningen
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Sparta Rotterdam
Heerenveen
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
PEC Zwolle
Willem II
Cambuur
Telstar
Feyenoord