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Primeira Liga

Portogallo · Season 2025/26

2025/26 2024/25

59.50%

1X2 accuracy · 37 predictions (3 months)

🏆

Champion 2025

FC Porto

Mathematically confirmed champion · 88 pts

Bracket

Final

Torreense 0 · 0

Casa Pia 0 · 2

League Table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF–GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	66–18	+48	88	V S V V V
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89–24	+65	82	V V V P P
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74–25	+49	80	V P P V V
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	64–36	+28	59	P P P S V
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	42–29	+13	56	V P P V P
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	47–38	+9	50	S S P V S
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37–49	-12	43	P S V S V
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47–64	-17	42	V V P S V
9	Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	39–51	-12	42	S S S V V
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54–57	-3	39	S P P S S
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35–52	-17	39	S P S V S
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35–57	-22	36	P S P S P
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32–41	-9	36	S V P V P
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37–45	-8	34	V S S V V
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	38–56	-18	30	P P S S S
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31–57	-26	30	P V S S S
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27–55	-28	28	S V V P S
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	27–67	-40	21	P V V P P

Champion Champions League Europa League Conference League Relegation Playoff Relegation

Recent results

Player statistics

⚽ Top scorers

L. Suárez

Sporting CP

V. Pavlidis

Benfica

Y. Begraoui

Estoril

C. Ramírez

Nacional

R. Zalazar

SC Braga

Ricardo Horta

SC Braga

Pote

Sporting CP

Samu

FC Porto

Murilo

GIL Vicente

Pau Victor

SC Braga

👟 Assists

Trincão

Sporting CP

João Carvalho

Estoril

Pote

Sporting CP

Luís Esteves

GIL Vicente

Gabri Veiga

FC Porto

J. Livolant

Casa Pia

Alberto Baio

FC Porto

Gil Dias

Famalicao

J. Holsgrove

Estoril

L. Suárez

Sporting CP

🟨 Yellow cards

David Sousa

Casa Pia

Léo Santos

Nacional

Maracás

Moreirense

Tiago Esgaio

Arouca

B. Medina

Tondela

M. Araújo

Sporting CP

Serginho

Santa Clara

T. van de Looi

Famalicao

A. Ntoi

Rio Ave

R. Rios

Benfica

Model calibration for this league

Probability band	Sample	Expected (mid)	Actual	Δ
50–60%%	11	55.00%	36.4%	-18.60%
60–70%%	15	65.00%	66.7%	+1.70%
70–100%%	11	85.00%	72.7%	-12.30%

Based on 37 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration

xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve

#	Team	Goals	xG	Δ
1	Sporting CP	89	72.27	+16.73
2	Arouca	47	33.81	+13.19
3	Estoril	54	42.76	+11.24
4	SC Braga	64	57.35	+6.65
5	Moreirense	37	31.29	+5.71
6	FC Porto	66	62.11	+3.89
7	Benfica	74	70.22	+3.78
8	GIL Vicente	47	44.88	+2.12
9	Rio Ave	35	35.46	-0.46
10	Casa Pia	31	31.66	-0.66
11	Nacional	37	38.81	-1.81
12	Guimaraes	39	40.96	-1.96
13	Estrela	38	41.43	-3.43
14	Famalicao	42	45.75	-3.75
15	Santa Clara	32	36.38	-4.38
16	AVS	27	31.88	-4.88
17	Alverca	35	41.60	-6.60
18	Tondela	27	38.35	-11.35

Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms

Frequently Asked Questions

What predictions are available for Primeira Liga?

For Primeira Liga, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.

How accurate are predictions for Primeira Liga?

Accuracy for Primeira Liga is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Primeira Liga using per-league historical data.

How are Primeira Liga season projections calculated?

Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.