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Primeira Liga

Portogallo · Season 2026/27

2026/27 2025/26 2024/25

50.00%

1X2 accuracy · 10 predictions (3 months)

Matchday 0 of 34 0%

League Table

18 Teams

#	Team	GF–GA	GD
1	Estrela — Champion	0–0	+0
2	Guimaraes — Champions League	0–0	+0
3	Estoril — Europa League	0–0	+0
4	GIL Vicente — Conference League	0–0	+0
5	Rio Ave	0–0	+0
6	Santa Clara	0–0	+0
7	Moreirense	0–0	+0
8	FC Porto	0–0	+0
9	Sporting CP	0–0	+0
10	Benfica	0–0	+0
11	Maritimo	0–0	+0
12	SC Braga	0–0	+0
13	Nacional	0–0	+0
14	Arouca	0–0	+0
15	Casa Pia	0–0	+0
16	Academico Viseu — Relegation Playoff	0–0	+0
17	Alverca — Relegation	0–0	+0
18	Famalicao — Relegation	0–0	+0

Champion Champions League Europa League Conference League Relegation Relegation Playoff

End of season projections

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 1 Aug 2026

Champion Champions League Europa League Conference League Relegation Playoff Relegation

#	Team	Projected Pts	Schedule	Trend
1	Estrela	41 (15–73) pos. ~13.0°	C17 · T17 ELO 1540	▼1%
2	Guimaraes	43 (18–73) pos. ~11.8°	C17 · T17 ELO 1537	▲1%
3	Estoril	44 (18–73) pos. ~11.4°	C17 · T17 ELO 1537	▼0%
4	GIL Vicente	45 (14–75) pos. ~10.8°	C17 · T17 ELO 1535	▼0%
5	Rio Ave	42 (13–70) pos. ~12.4°	C17 · T17 ELO 1538	▼1%
6	Santa Clara	44 (17–74) pos. ~11.1°	C17 · T17 ELO 1536	▲0%
7	Moreirense	43 (16–73) pos. ~12.0°	C17 · T17 ELO 1538	▲0%
8	FC Porto	56 (25–83) pos. ~4.6°	C17 · T17 ELO 1524	▼0%
9	Sporting CP	56 (22–85) pos. ~4.4°	C17 · T17 ELO 1523	▲0%
10	Benfica	56 (21–84) pos. ~4.6°	C17 · T17 ELO 1524	·
11	Maritimo	49 (17–81) pos. ~8.0°	C17 · T17 ELO 1530	▲0%
12	SC Braga	53 (26–81) pos. ~6.2°	C17 · T17 ELO 1527	▲0%
13	Nacional	42 (14–69) pos. ~12.2°	C17 · T17 ELO 1538	▲1%
14	Arouca	46 (20–77) pos. ~10.2°	C17 · T17 ELO 1534	▼0%
15	Casa Pia	43 (17–70) pos. ~12.0°	C17 · T17 ELO 1538	▲1%
16	Academico Viseu	50 (25–79) pos. ~7.4°	C17 · T17 ELO 1529	▼0%
17	Alverca	44 (15–69) pos. ~11.3°	C17 · T17 ELO 1536	▼0%
18	Famalicao	50 (23–84) pos. ~7.8°	C17 · T17 ELO 1530	▼0%

% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.

Upcoming matches

Model & advanced data

Model calibration for this league▾

Probability band	Sample	Expected (mid)	Actual	Δ
50–60%%	11	55.00%	36.4%	-18.60%
60–70%%	15	65.00%	66.7%	+1.70%
70–100%%	11	85.00%	72.7%	-12.30%

Based on 37 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration

Frequently Asked Questions

What predictions are available for Primeira Liga?

For Primeira Liga, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.

How accurate are predictions for Primeira Liga?

Accuracy for Primeira Liga is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Primeira Liga using per-league historical data.

How are Primeira Liga season projections calculated?

Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.