61.00%
1X2 accuracy · 41 predictions (3 months)
League Table + end of season projections
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF–GA | GD | Pts | Form | Projected Pts | Champion | Champions League | Europa League | Conference League | Relegation | Schedule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AC Milan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (22–83)
pos. ~10.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1550
|
|
| 2 | Monza | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (25–83)
pos. ~10.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1547
|
|
| 3 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
53 (21–82)
pos. ~10.4°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1551
|
|
| 4 | AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
53 (25–82)
pos. ~10.4°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1546
|
|
| 5 | Atalanta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (20–81)
pos. ~10.6°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1549
|
|
| 6 | Bologna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (22–82)
pos. ~10.6°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1552
|
|
| 7 | Cagliari | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (25–80)
pos. ~10.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1555
|
|
| 8 | Como | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (22–80)
pos. ~10.6°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1545
|
|
| 9 | Frosinone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (20–84)
pos. ~10.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1544
|
|
| 10 | Genoa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
53 (25–86)
pos. ~10.4°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1554
|
|
| 11 | Inter | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (25–85)
pos. ~10.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1541
|
|
| 12 | Juventus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (22–81)
pos. ~10.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1548
|
|
| 13 | Lazio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (18–82)
pos. ~10.6°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1552
|
|
| 14 | Parma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
53 (26–87)
pos. ~10.4°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1554
|
|
| 15 | Sassuolo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (23–86)
pos. ~10.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1553
|
|
| 16 | Napoli | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (24–84)
pos. ~10.6°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1547
|
|
| 17 | Torino | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (26–84)
pos. ~10.4°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1554
|
|
| 18 | Udinese | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (25–83)
pos. ~10.6°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1551
|
|
| 19 | Lecce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
52 (22–84)
pos. ~10.6°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1556
|
|
| 20 | Venezia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | +0 | 0 |
53 (24–81)
pos. ~10.4°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C19
·
T19
ELO 1544
|
Champion
Champions League
Europa League
Conference League
Relegation
% = probability of reaching that zone or better ·
10,000 simulations ·
14 Jun 2026
Projection trend
AC Milan
5%
=
Title
Monza
15%
+0%
Relegation
Fiorentina
5%
+0%
Title
AS Roma
15%
0%
Relegation
Atalanta
16%
+1%
Relegation
Bologna
16%
+1%
Relegation
Cagliari
5%
0%
Title
Como
16%
+1%
Relegation
Frosinone
5%
+1%
Title
Genoa
5%
+0%
Title
Inter
5%
0%
Title
Juventus
15%
+1%
Relegation
Lazio
5%
0%
Title
Parma
5%
0%
Title
Sassuolo
5%
0%
Title
Napoli
15%
0%
Relegation
Torino
5%
0%
Title
Udinese
15%
+0%
Relegation
Lecce
15%
0%
Relegation
Venezia
6%
+0%
Title
Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 8 daily simulations.
Model calibration for this league
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 25 | 55.00% | 48.0% | -7.00% |
| 60–70%% | 12 | 65.00% | 83.3% | +18.30% |
| 70–100%% | 4 | 85.00% | 75.0% | -10.00% |
Based on 41 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
Squad value & Efficiency
| # | Team | Value (€M) | Pts | Over/Under | Δ pts ↓ | Eff. rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lecce
|
€95.4M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Udinese
|
€139.9M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Torino
|
€136.9M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Napoli
|
€421.3M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Sassuolo
|
€162.4M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Parma
|
€151.0M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Lazio
|
€224.8M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Juventus
|
€549.7M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Inter
|
€666.8M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Genoa
|
€137.4M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Como
|
€312.8M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Cagliari
|
€133.3M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Bologna
|
€291.0M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Atalanta
|
€421.1M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
AS Roma
|
€410.5M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Fiorentina
|
€248.0M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
AC Milan
|
€493.5M | 0 |
|
+0.0 | ||
Frosinone
|
n/d | 0 | ||||
Monza
|
n/d | 0 | ||||
Venezia
|
n/d | 0 |
Source: Transfermarkt · Δ pts = actual points − expected points from squad value regression
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Serie A?
For Serie A, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Serie A?
Accuracy for Serie A is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Serie A using per-league historical data.
How are Serie A season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.