Matchday 7 of 34
21%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
AFC Champions League Elite
Relegation
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
77 (52–97)
pos. ~1.4°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1511
|
▲0% | ||
|
60 (29–84)
pos. ~5.1°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1513
|
▲0% | ||
|
67 (43–89)
pos. ~3.2°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1513
|
▼0% | ||
|
67 (38–89)
pos. ~3.2°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1509
|
▲0% | ||
|
59 (36–85)
pos. ~5.2°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1516
|
▼1% | ||
|
62 (39–86)
pos. ~4.6°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1509
|
▼1% | ||
|
50 (28–74)
pos. ~7.9°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1519
|
· | ||
|
51 (29–76)
pos. ~7.7°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1516
|
▼0% | ||
|
48 (25–71)
pos. ~8.7°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1515
|
· | ||
|
43 (19–67)
pos. ~10.3°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1518
|
· | ||
|
37 (14–63)
pos. ~12.6°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1517
|
▲0% | ||
|
38 (17–65)
pos. ~12.3°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1517
|
▲0% | ||
|
31 (10–56)
pos. ~14.8°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1516
|
▼1% | ||
|
34 (13–61)
pos. ~13.7°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1519
|
▼0% | ||
|
31 (11–56)
pos. ~14.8°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1516
|
▲0% | ||
|
32 (10–55)
pos. ~14.6°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1513
|
▼0% | ||
|
29 (10–53)
pos. ~15.7°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1516
|
▼0% | ||
|
30 (10–54)
pos. ~15.3°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1516
|
▲1% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 10 | 55.00% | 50.0% | -5.00% |
| 60–70%% | 15 | 65.00% | 66.7% | +1.70% |
| 70–100%% | 9 | 85.00% | 88.9% | +3.90% |
Based on 34 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Al-Nassr
|
12 | 6.44 | +5.56 | |
| 2 |
Al Riyadh
|
6 | 2.80 | +3.20 | |
| 3 |
Al-Ettifaq
|
7 | 4.23 | +2.77 | |
| 4 |
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
|
12 | 9.30 | +2.70 | |
| 5 |
Al-Qadisiyah FC
|
8 | 6.21 | +1.79 | |
| 6 |
Al-Hazm
|
5 | 3.25 | +1.75 | |
| 7 |
Abha
|
4 | 3.09 | +0.91 | |
| 8 |
Al-Fayha
|
4 | 3.69 | +0.31 | |
| 9 |
NEOM
|
4 | 3.76 | +0.24 | |
| 10 |
Al-Faisaly FC
|
4 | 4.29 | -0.29 | |
| 11 |
Al Kholood
|
5 | 5.44 | -0.44 | |
| 12 |
Al-Ittihad FC
|
5 | 5.92 | -0.92 | |
| 13 |
Al Shabab
|
5 | 6.06 | -1.06 | |
| 14 |
Al Khaleej Saihat
|
2 | 3.67 | -1.67 | |
| 15 |
Al-Fateh
|
1 | 2.71 | -1.71 | |
| 16 |
Al Taawon
|
3 | 5.74 | -2.74 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Saudi Pro League?
For Saudi Pro League, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Saudi Pro League?
Accuracy for Saudi Pro League is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Saudi Pro League using per-league historical data.
How are Saudi Pro League season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.
Al-Nassr
Al Riyadh
Al-Ettifaq
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Al-Hazm
Abha
Al-Fayha
NEOM
Al-Faisaly FC
Al Kholood
Al-Ittihad FC
Al Shabab
Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Fateh
Al Taawon