Matchday 6 of 46
13%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
Promotion
Promotion Playoff
Relegation
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
78 (47–108)
pos. ~5.2°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1506
|
▲0% | ||
|
81 (46–113)
pos. ~3.8°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1498
|
▲0% | ||
|
72 (45–105)
pos. ~7.8°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1498
|
▲0% | ||
|
74 (43–106)
pos. ~6.8°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1498
|
▲1% | ||
|
78 (46–111)
pos. ~4.8°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1500
|
▼1% | ||
|
73 (44–102)
pos. ~7.6°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1501
|
▼0% | ||
|
57 (24–87)
pos. ~16.4°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1505
|
▲0% | ||
|
75 (44–104)
pos. ~6.3°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1501
|
▼0% | ||
|
69 (41–101)
pos. ~9.4°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1503
|
▼0% | ||
|
68 (34–98)
pos. ~10.2°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1503
|
▲0% | ||
|
63 (33–93)
pos. ~12.9°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1502
|
▲0% | ||
|
67 (34–99)
pos. ~10.8°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1499
|
▲0% | ||
|
59 (32–90)
pos. ~15.2°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1501
|
▼1% | ||
|
71 (43–99)
pos. ~8.6°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1499
|
▼0% | ||
|
64 (35–95)
pos. ~12.5°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1507
|
▲0% | ||
|
65 (34–95)
pos. ~12.0°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1500
|
▲1% | ||
|
59 (34–89)
pos. ~15.3°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1500
|
▼1% | ||
|
53 (23–84)
pos. ~18.7°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1505
|
▼0% | ||
|
56 (29–87)
pos. ~16.9°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1503
|
▲1% | ||
|
58 (29–86)
pos. ~16.1°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1503
|
▲0% | ||
|
49 (23–85)
pos. ~20.3°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1502
|
▼0% | ||
|
41 (16–72)
pos. ~22.6°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1505
|
· | ||
|
46 (19–77)
pos. ~21.2°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1504
|
▼1% | ||
|
52 (22–92)
pos. ~18.8°
|
C20 · T20
ELO 1504
|
▲1% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 23 | 55.00% | 56.5% | +1.50% |
| 60–70%% | 8 | 65.00% | 87.5% | +22.50% |
| 70–100%% | 14 | 85.00% | 78.6% | -6.40% |
Based on 45 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Mansfield Town
|
8 | 3.66 | +4.34 | |
| 2 |
Luton
|
8 | 4.60 | +3.40 | |
| 3 |
AFC Wimbledon
|
1 | 1.19 | -0.19 | |
| 4 |
Wigan
|
2 | 6.16 | -4.16 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for League One?
For League One, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for League One?
Accuracy for League One is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for League One using per-league historical data.
How are League One season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.
Mansfield Town
Luton
AFC Wimbledon
Wigan