58.80%
1X2 accuracy · 17 predictions (3 months)
League Table + end of season projections
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF–GA | GD | Pts | Form | Projected Pts | Champion | Copa Libertadores (Fase a Gironi) | Copa Libertadores (Qualificazione) | Copa Sudamericana | Relegation | Schedule |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30–13 | +17 | 41 |
77 (54–97)
pos. ~1.2°
|
|
|
|
|
— |
C10
·
T10
ELO 1507
|
|
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31–16 | +15 | 34 |
69 (48–89)
pos. ~2.5°
|
|
|
|
|
— |
C10
·
T10
ELO 1504
|
|
| 3 | Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 28–23 | +5 | 31 |
58 (37–79)
pos. ~6.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C10
·
T10
ELO 1509
|
|
| 4 | Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24–18 | +6 | 30 |
62 (41–82)
pos. ~4.9°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C9
·
T11
ELO 1509
|
|
| 5 | RB Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 25–19 | +6 | 29 |
62 (38–83)
pos. ~4.6°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C10
·
T10
ELO 1511
|
|
| 6 | Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25–23 | +2 | 26 |
52 (33–72)
pos. ~10.0°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C9
·
T11
ELO 1511
|
|
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24–24 | +0 | 26 |
53 (33–75)
pos. ~9.6°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C11
·
T9
ELO 1513
|
|
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 23–20 | +3 | 25 |
50 (30–75)
pos. ~11.7°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C11
·
T9
ELO 1510
|
|
| 9 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22–23 | -1 | 24 |
53 (31–74)
pos. ~9.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C11
·
T9
ELO 1509
|
|
| 10 | Corinthians | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18–19 | -1 | 24 |
53 (31–76)
pos. ~9.7°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C10
·
T10
ELO 1508
|
|
| 11 | Cruzeiro | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24–28 | -4 | 24 |
53 (34–75)
pos. ~9.5°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C9
·
T11
ELO 1509
|
|
| 12 | Botafogo | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 31–31 | +0 | 22 |
52 (30–72)
pos. ~10.1°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C11
·
T9
ELO 1508
|
|
| 13 | Vitoria | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21–25 | -4 | 22 |
50 (28–71)
pos. ~11.4°
|
|
|
|
|
|
C11
·
T9
ELO 1509
|
|
| 14 | Internacional | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 21–22 | -1 | 21 |
48 (27–71)
pos. ~12.5°
|
— |
|
|
|
|
C10
·
T10
ELO 1511
|
|
| 15 | Santos | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26–29 | -3 | 21 |
47 (26–72)
pos. ~13.2°
|
— |
|
|
|
|
C9
·
T11
ELO 1512
|
|
| 16 | Gremio | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 20–23 | -3 | 21 |
45 (26–69)
pos. ~14.4°
|
— |
|
|
|
|
C10
·
T10
ELO 1509
|
|
| 17 | Vasco DA Gama | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 22–29 | -7 | 20 |
41 (22–67)
pos. ~16.6°
|
— |
|
|
|
|
C9
·
T11
ELO 1510
|
|
| 18 | Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21–29 | -8 | 18 |
43 (22–66)
pos. ~15.6°
|
— |
|
|
|
|
C10
·
T10
ELO 1512
|
|
| 19 | Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 18–24 | -6 | 16 |
41 (21–62)
pos. ~16.8°
|
— |
|
|
|
|
C10
·
T10
ELO 1511
|
|
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 17 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 17–33 | -16 | 9 |
27 (11–48)
pos. ~19.9°
|
— | — | — | — |
|
C10
·
T10
ELO 1516
|
Champion
Copa Libertadores (Fase a Gironi)
Copa Libertadores (Qualificazione)
Copa Sudamericana
Relegation
% = probability of reaching that zone or better ·
10,000 simulations ·
14 Jun 2026
Projection trend
Palmeiras
81%
-1%
Title
Flamengo
15%
+0%
Title
Fluminense
31%
+0%
Champions
Atletico Paranaense
55%
+0%
Champions
RB Bragantino
60%
=
Champions
Bahia
7%
+0%
Champions
Coritiba
8%
=
Champions
Sao Paulo
3%
0%
Champions
Atletico-MG
9%
+0%
Champions
Corinthians
8%
-1%
Champions
Cruzeiro
9%
-1%
Champions
Botafogo
7%
+1%
Champions
Vitoria
4%
+0%
Champions
Internacional
17%
0%
Relegation
Santos
22%
+0%
Relegation
Gremio
33%
+1%
Relegation
Vasco DA Gama
63%
=
Relegation
Remo
49%
0%
Relegation
Mirassol
66%
-1%
Relegation
Chapecoense-sc
100%
=
Relegation
Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Player statistics
⚽ Top scorers
1
11
K. Viveros
Atletico Paranaense
2
10
Pedro
Flamengo
3
9
John Kennedy
Fluminense
4
9
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
5
8
Breno Lopes
Coritiba
6
7
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
7
7
Arthur Cabral
Botafogo
8
7
Gabriel Barbosa
Santos
9
7
Luciano Juba
Bahia
10
6
J. López
Palmeiras
👟 Assists
1
9
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
2
7
Josué
Coritiba
3
6
Samuel Lino
Flamengo
4
6
R. Garro
Corinthians
5
5
G. Benavídez
Atletico Paranaense
6
4
Pedro
Flamengo
7
4
L. Acosta
Fluminense
8
4
Erick
Vitoria
9
4
J. Rodríguez
Vasco DA Gama
10
4
Alesson
Mirassol
🟨 Yellow cards
1
9
Juninho Capixaba
RB Bragantino
2
8
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
3
7
José Aldo
Mirassol
4
7
Victor Gabriel
Internacional
5
7
E. Díaz
Sao Paulo
6
6
A. Gómez
Vasco DA Gama
7
6
Thiago Mendes
Vasco DA Gama
8
6
N. Acevedo
Bahia
9
6
Ruan Tressoldi
Atletico-MG
10
6
Léo Pereira
Flamengo
Model calibration for this league
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 7 | 55.00% | 57.1% | +2.10% |
| 60–70%% | 9 | 65.00% | 55.6% | -9.40% |
Based on 17 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Palmeiras
|
30 | 16.66 | +13.34 |
|
| 2 |
Botafogo
|
31 | 19.10 | +11.90 |
|
| 3 |
Coritiba
|
24 | 17.73 | +6.27 |
|
| 4 |
Santos
|
26 | 21.23 | +4.77 |
|
| 5 |
Fluminense
|
26 | 21.39 | +4.61 |
|
| 6 |
Corinthians
|
18 | 14.14 | +3.86 |
|
| 7 |
Vitoria
|
21 | 17.19 | +3.81 |
|
| 8 |
Flamengo
|
27 | 24.07 | +2.93 |
|
| 9 |
Remo
|
21 | 18.34 | +2.66 |
|
| 10 |
Gremio
|
20 | 18.22 | +1.78 |
|
| 11 |
Atletico-MG
|
22 | 20.41 | +1.59 |
|
| 12 |
Atletico Paranaense
|
24 | 22.45 | +1.55 |
|
| 13 |
Bahia
|
25 | 24.38 | +0.62 |
|
| 14 |
Cruzeiro
|
24 | 23.66 | +0.34 |
|
| 15 |
Mirassol
|
18 | 18.60 | -0.60 |
|
| 16 |
Chapecoense-sc
|
16 | 16.63 | -0.63 |
|
| 17 |
Sao Paulo
|
23 | 24.14 | -1.14 |
|
| 18 |
RB Bragantino
|
25 | 26.70 | -1.70 |
|
| 19 |
Vasco DA Gama
|
22 | 27.58 | -5.58 |
|
| 20 |
Internacional
|
21 | 27.33 | -6.33 |
|
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Brasileirão Série A?
For Brasileirão Série A, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Brasileirão Série A?
Accuracy for Brasileirão Série A is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Brasileirão Série A using per-league historical data.
How are Brasileirão Série A season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.