Matchday 8 of 34
24%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
Champions League
Conference League
Relegation
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
64 (33–88)
pos. ~2.8°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1518
|
▲0% | ||
|
64 (37–86)
pos. ~2.9°
|
C13 · T13
ELO 1520
|
▲0% | ||
|
64 (36–90)
pos. ~3.1°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1513
|
▼1% | ||
|
57 (32–83)
pos. ~5.4°
|
C13 · T13
ELO 1514
|
▲0% | ||
|
51 (28–79)
pos. ~7.8°
|
C13 · T13
ELO 1518
|
▲2% | ||
|
54 (29–77)
pos. ~6.5°
|
C12 · T15
ELO 1521
|
· | ||
|
53 (29–78)
pos. ~6.9°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1516
|
▼1% | ||
|
50 (26–74)
pos. ~7.9°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1520
|
▼0% | ||
|
55 (32–80)
pos. ~6.1°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1512
|
▼0% | ||
|
48 (23–72)
pos. ~9.1°
|
C15 · T12
ELO 1523
|
▼0% | ||
|
43 (21–68)
pos. ~11.1°
|
C13 · T13
ELO 1518
|
▼1% | ||
|
37 (15–60)
pos. ~14.0°
|
C13 · T13
ELO 1525
|
▼2% | ||
|
38 (14–62)
pos. ~13.4°
|
C14 · T13
ELO 1523
|
▼2% | ||
|
32 (12–57)
pos. ~15.9°
|
C12 · T14
ELO 1525
|
▲13% | ||
|
39 (17–64)
pos. ~13.0°
|
C13 · T13
ELO 1517
|
▼2% | ||
|
33 (12–58)
pos. ~15.4°
|
C13 · T13
ELO 1520
|
▼2% | ||
|
35 (11–60)
pos. ~14.6°
|
C15 · T12
ELO 1520
|
▼2% | ||
|
34 (11–61)
pos. ~15.1°
|
C13 · T14
ELO 1520
|
▲2% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60–70%% | 7 | 65.00% | 42.9% | -22.10% |
| 70–100%% | 3 | 85.00% | 33.3% | -51.70% |
Based on 12 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
GKS Katowice
|
12 | 8.37 | +3.63 | |
| 2 |
Legia Warszawa
|
12 | 8.71 | +3.29 | |
| 3 |
Gornik Zabrze
|
11 | 8.12 | +2.88 | |
| 4 |
Korona Kielce
|
6 | 4.23 | +1.77 | |
| 5 |
Zaglebie Lubin
|
5 | 3.50 | +1.50 | |
| 6 |
Pogon Szczecin
|
7 | 5.61 | +1.39 | |
| 7 |
Lech Poznan
|
8 | 7.01 | +0.99 | |
| 8 |
Wieczysta Kraków
|
8 | 7.44 | +0.56 | |
| 9 |
Jagiellonia
|
7 | 6.44 | +0.56 | |
| 10 |
Wisla Krakow
|
9 | 8.73 | +0.27 | |
| 11 |
Piast Gliwice
|
4 | 3.74 | +0.26 | |
| 12 |
Widzew Łódź
|
10 | 9.80 | +0.20 | |
| 13 |
Slask Wroclaw
|
8 | 8.52 | -0.52 | |
| 14 |
Raków Częstochowa
|
6 | 6.94 | -0.94 | |
| 15 |
Motor Lublin
|
6 | 7.26 | -1.26 | |
| 16 |
Radomiak Radom
|
4 | 5.38 | -1.38 | |
| 17 |
Cracovia Krakow
|
5 | 7.20 | -2.20 | |
| 18 |
Wisla Plock
|
3 | 8.33 | -5.33 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for Ekstraklasa?
For Ekstraklasa, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for Ekstraklasa?
Accuracy for Ekstraklasa is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Ekstraklasa using per-league historical data.
How are Ekstraklasa season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.
GKS Katowice
Legia Warszawa
Gornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
Zaglebie Lubin
Pogon Szczecin
Lech Poznan
Wieczysta Kraków
Jagiellonia
Wisla Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Widzew Łódź
Slask Wroclaw
Raków Częstochowa
Motor Lublin
Radomiak Radom
Cracovia Krakow
Wisla Plock