USL Championship
USA
· Season 2026
Matchday 18 of 24
75%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 29 Jul 2026
Promotion Playoff
| # | Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
55 (38–68)
pos. ~1.3°
|
C7 · T6
ELO 1501
|
· | ||
| 2 |
48 (32–60)
pos. ~2.6°
|
C7 · T6
ELO 1496
|
· | ||
| 3 |
46 (31–60)
pos. ~3.2°
|
C7 · T7
ELO 1507
|
· | ||
| 4 |
38 (25–53)
pos. ~6.3°
|
C7 · T7
ELO 1504
|
▲1% | ||
| 5 |
37 (23–50)
pos. ~6.8°
|
C7 · T7
ELO 1505
|
▼0% | ||
| 6 |
43 (26–56)
pos. ~4.3°
|
C7 · T8
ELO 1499
|
▲0% | ||
| 7 |
33 (22–49)
pos. ~8.3°
|
C6 · T6
ELO 1501
|
· | ||
| 8 |
38 (23–52)
pos. ~6.5°
|
C7 · T8
ELO 1499
|
▼0% | ||
| 9 |
36 (23–54)
pos. ~7.1°
|
C8 · T6
ELO 1500
|
▲1% | ||
| 10 |
26 (15–43)
pos. ~11.1°
|
C6 · T8
ELO 1500
|
· | ||
| 10 |
10 (10–10)
pos. ~14.0°
|
C0 · T0
ELO
|
· | ||
| 11 |
30 (16–49)
pos. ~9.7°
|
C5 · T9
ELO 1497
|
▼1% | ||
| 12 |
26 (13–44)
pos. ~11.0°
|
C7 · T7
ELO 1500
|
· | ||
| 13 |
18 (8–33)
pos. ~12.8°
|
C6 · T6
ELO 1501
|
· |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 7 | 55.00% | 85.7% | +30.70% |
Based on 10 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for USL Championship?
For USL Championship, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for USL Championship?
Accuracy for USL Championship is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for USL Championship using per-league historical data.
How are USL Championship season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.