First League

Macedonia · Season 2026/27

2026/27 2025/26

70.60%

1X2 accuracy · 17 predictions (3 months)

League Table + end of season projections

#	Team	GF–GA	GD	Projected Pts	Champion	Champions League	Conference League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation	Schedule
1	Bashkimi Kumanovo	0–0	+0	—	—	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1515
2	Vardar Skopje	0–0	+0	—	—	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1509
3	Sileks	0–0	+0	—	—	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1514
4	Bregalnica Štip	0–0	+0	—	—	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1512
5	Shkendija	0–0	+0	—	—	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1510
6	Tikveš	0–0	+0	—	—	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1514
7	Skopje	0–0	+0	6 (3–9) pos. ~1.3°	71%	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1514
8	Struga	0–0	+0	—	—	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1512
9	Aresimi	0–0	+0	—	—	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1515
10	Shkëndija Haraçinë	0–0	+0	4 (1–7) pos. ~1.8°	29%	—	—	—	—	C9 · T9 ELO 1514

Champion Champions League Conference League Relegation Playoff Relegation % = probability of reaching that zone or better · 10,000 simulations · 14 Jun 2026

Upcoming matches

Model calibration for this league

Probability band	Sample	Expected (mid)	Actual	Δ
50–60%%	3	55.00%	33.3%	-21.70%
60–70%%	5	65.00%	80.0%	+15.00%
70–100%%	9	85.00%	77.8%	-7.20%

Based on 17 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration

Frequently Asked Questions

What predictions are available for First League?

For First League, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.

How accurate are predictions for First League?

Accuracy for First League is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for First League using per-league historical data.

How are First League season projections calculated?

Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.