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First League

Macedonia · Season 2026/27

2026/27 2025/26

69.20%

1X2 accuracy · 13 predictions (3 months)

Matchday 1 of 18 6%

League Table

10 Teams

#	Team	P	W	L	GF–GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Sileks — Champion	1	1	0	6–0	+6	3	V
2	Tikveš — Conference League	1	1	0	5–1	+4	3	V
3	Shkendija	1	1	0	3–0	+3	3	V
4	Struga	1	1	0	3–0	+3	3	V
5	Vardar Skopje	1	1	0	2–0	+2	3	V
6	Bregalnica Štip — Relegation Playoff	1	0	1	0–2	-2	0	S
7	Skopje — Relegation Playoff	1	0	1	0–3	-3	0	S
8	Shkëndija Haraçinë — Relegation	1	0	1	0–3	-3	0	S
9	Aresimi — Relegation	1	0	1	1–5	-4	0	S
10	Bashkimi Kumanovo — Relegation	1	0	1	0–6	-6	0	S
1	Sileks — Champion	1	1	0	6–0	+6	3	V
2	Tikveš — Conference League	1	1	0	5–1	+4	3	V
3	Struga	1	1	0	3–0	+3	3	V
4	Shkendija	1	1	0	3–0	+3	3	V
5	Vardar Skopje	1	1	0	2–0	+2	3	V
1	Bregalnica Štip — Champion	1	0	1	0–2	-2	0	S
2	Shkëndija Haraçinë — Conference League	1	0	1	0–3	-3	0	S
3	Skopje	1	0	1	0–3	-3	0	S
4	Aresimi	1	0	1	1–5	-4	0	S
5	Bashkimi Kumanovo	1	0	1	0–6	-6	0	S

Champion Champions League Conference League Relegation Relegation Playoff

End of season projections

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 29 Jul 2026

Champion Champions League Conference League Relegation Playoff Relegation

#	Team	Projected Pts	Schedule	Trend
1	Sileks	29 (11–49) pos. ~3.8°	C8 · T9 ELO 1513	▼0%
2	Tikveš	28 (8–49) pos. ~4.3°	C8 · T9 ELO 1513	▲0%
3	Shkendija	30 (11–49) pos. ~3.7°	C8 · T9 ELO 1508	▲1%
4	Struga	29 (7–49) pos. ~4.1°	C8 · T9 ELO 1510	▲1%
5	Vardar Skopje	30 (8–49) pos. ~3.4°	C8 · T9 ELO 1508	▼1%
6	Bregalnica Štip	23 (4–44) pos. ~6.8°	C9 · T8 ELO 1510	▲0%
7	Skopje	21 (4–42) pos. ~7.2°	C9 · T8 ELO 1511	▼1%
8	Shkëndija Haraçinë	21 (2–39) pos. ~7.3°	C9 · T8 ELO 1511	▲1%
9	Aresimi	22 (4–45) pos. ~6.8°	C9 · T8 ELO 1514	▲1%
10	Bashkimi Kumanovo	21 (3–42) pos. ~7.6°	C9 · T8 ELO 1514	▼1%

% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.

Upcoming matches

Recent results

Model & advanced data

Model calibration for this league▾

Probability band	Sample	Expected (mid)	Actual	Δ
50–60%%	3	55.00%	33.3%	-21.70%
60–70%%	5	65.00%	80.0%	+15.00%
70–100%%	9	85.00%	77.8%	-7.20%

Based on 17 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration

Frequently Asked Questions

What predictions are available for First League?

For First League, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.

How accurate are predictions for First League?

Accuracy for First League is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for First League using per-league historical data.

How are First League season projections calculated?

Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.