Matchday 7 of 18
39%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
Champions League
Conference League
Relegation
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
74 (47–98)
pos. ~1.5°
|
C15 · T14
ELO 1498
|
▲4% | ||
|
63 (40–88)
pos. ~3.5°
|
C15 · T14
ELO 1504
|
▲0% | ||
|
64 (38–90)
pos. ~3.3°
|
C14 · T15
ELO 1499
|
▼5% | ||
|
67 (41–88)
pos. ~2.7°
|
C14 · T15
ELO 1496
|
▲0% | ||
|
57 (30–80)
pos. ~4.6°
|
C14 · T15
ELO 1501
|
· | ||
|
49 (22–75)
pos. ~5.9°
|
C14 · T15
ELO 1503
|
▼0% | ||
|
41 (19–64)
pos. ~7.1°
|
C15 · T14
ELO 1512
|
▼0% | ||
|
32 (12–63)
pos. ~8.4°
|
C15 · T14
ELO 1511
|
▼1% | ||
|
28 (8–55)
pos. ~9.1°
|
C15 · T14
ELO 1504
|
▼4% | ||
|
29 (7–53)
pos. ~9.0°
|
C14 · T15
ELO 1510
|
▲6% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 3 | 55.00% | 66.7% | +11.70% |
| 60–70%% | 7 | 65.00% | 100.0% | +35.00% |
| 70–100%% | 7 | 85.00% | 57.1% | -27.90% |
Based on 17 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
NK Varazdin
|
11 | 7.42 | +3.58 | |
| 2 |
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
|
7 | 3.88 | +3.12 | |
| 3 |
NK Osijek
|
12 | 8.89 | +3.11 | |
| 4 |
HNK Hajduk Split
|
11 | 7.90 | +3.10 | |
| 5 |
Istra 1961
|
9 | 6.28 | +2.72 | |
| 6 |
Rudes
|
6 | 3.28 | +2.72 | |
| 7 |
Dinamo Zagreb
|
9 | 6.32 | +2.68 | |
| 8 |
HNK Rijeka
|
5 | 5.30 | -0.30 | |
| 9 |
NK Slaven Belupo
|
3 | 3.47 | -0.47 | |
| 10 |
HNK Gorica
|
2 | 4.60 | -2.60 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for HNL?
For HNL, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for HNL?
Accuracy for HNL is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for HNL using per-league historical data.
How are HNL season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.