Matchday 0 of 18
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League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 29 Jul 2026
Champion
Champions League
Conference League
Relegation
| # | Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
59 (32–89)
pos. ~2.8°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1500
|
▲2% | ||
| 2 |
54 (27–85)
pos. ~4.0°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1510
|
▼0% | ||
| 3 |
45 (18–78)
pos. ~6.9°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1526
|
▲0% | ||
| 4 |
52 (25–81)
pos. ~4.7°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1513
|
▼0% | ||
| 5 |
45 (18–73)
pos. ~7.1°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1528
|
▼1% | ||
| 6 |
51 (24–79)
pos. ~5.0°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1515
|
▼2% | ||
| 7 |
46 (18–77)
pos. ~6.6°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1525
|
▲1% | ||
| 8 |
48 (21–76)
pos. ~5.9°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1521
|
· | ||
| 9 |
49 (20–78)
pos. ~5.6°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1520
|
▼0% | ||
| 10 |
47 (17–76)
pos. ~6.5°
|
C18 · T18
ELO 1524
|
▲0% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60–70%% | 7 | 65.00% | 100.0% | +35.00% |
| 70–100%% | 7 | 85.00% | 57.1% | -27.90% |
Based on 16 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for HNL?
For HNL, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for HNL?
Accuracy for HNL is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for HNL using per-league historical data.
How are HNL season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.