Matchday 9 of 26
35%
League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
Champions League
Conference League
Relegation Playoff
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
62 (41–76)
pos. ~1.3°
|
C8 · T9
ELO 1509
|
▼1% | ||
|
53 (30–71)
pos. ~3.0°
|
C8 · T9
ELO 1519
|
▲2% | ||
|
55 (35–72)
pos. ~2.5°
|
C8 · T10
ELO 1518
|
▼1% | ||
|
49 (32–65)
pos. ~3.7°
|
C8 · T9
ELO 1512
|
▼1% | ||
|
42 (24–59)
pos. ~5.2°
|
C9 · T8
ELO 1515
|
▼1% | ||
|
36 (16–56)
pos. ~6.8°
|
C8 · T9
ELO 1505
|
▼2% | ||
|
36 (18–55)
pos. ~6.8°
|
C8 · T9
ELO 1510
|
▲0% | ||
|
30 (12–49)
pos. ~8.7°
|
C8 · T9
ELO 1506
|
▲1% | ||
|
26 (9–45)
pos. ~10.6°
|
C9 · T8
ELO 1500
|
▲1% | ||
|
26 (10–44)
pos. ~10.4°
|
C9 · T8
ELO 1505
|
▲1% | ||
|
23 (7–44)
pos. ~11.4°
|
C9 · T8
ELO 1508
|
▼0% | ||
|
22 (6–41)
pos. ~12.1°
|
C9 · T8
ELO 1515
|
▼0% | ||
|
26 (8–46)
pos. ~10.5°
|
C10 · T8
ELO 1505
|
▼1% | ||
|
22 (7–40)
pos. ~12.0°
|
C9 · T8
ELO 1504
|
· |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 5 | 55.00% | 60.0% | +5.00% |
| 60–70%% | 7 | 65.00% | 42.9% | -22.10% |
Based on 12 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for First League?
For First League, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for First League?
Accuracy for First League is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for First League using per-league historical data.
How are First League season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.