62.50%
1X2 accuracy · 32 predictions (3 months)
🏆
League Table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF–GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95–36 | +59 | 94 |
S
V
S
V
V
|
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 27 | 5 | 6 | 77–35 | +42 | 86 |
V
V
V
S
V
|
| 3 | Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | 72–46 | +26 | 72 |
V
S
S
P
V
|
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 62–44 | +18 | 69 |
S
V
V
S
V
|
| 5 | Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 59–48 | +11 | 60 |
V
S
V
P
V
|
| 6 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 53–48 | +5 | 54 |
V
P
S
V
V
|
| 7 | Getafe | 38 | 15 | 6 | 17 | 32–38 | -6 | 51 |
V
S
V
P
S
|
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 41–44 | -3 | 50 |
V
V
P
P
V
|
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46–55 | -9 | 49 |
V
V
P
V
S
|
| 10 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 59–61 | -2 | 46 |
P
S
P
P
S
|
| 11 | Espanyol | 38 | 12 | 10 | 16 | 43–55 | -12 | 46 |
P
V
V
S
S
|
| 12 | Athletic Club | 38 | 13 | 6 | 19 | 43–58 | -15 | 45 |
S
P
S
S
V
|
| 13 | Sevilla | 38 | 12 | 7 | 19 | 46–60 | -14 | 43 |
S
S
V
V
V
|
| 14 | Alaves | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 44–56 | -12 | 43 |
S
V
V
P
S
|
| 15 | Elche | 38 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 49–57 | -8 | 43 |
P
V
S
P
S
|
| 16 | Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47–61 | -14 | 42 |
S
V
V
V
S
|
| 17 | Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 44–50 | -6 | 42 |
S
S
S
S
S
|
| 18 | Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 47–57 | -10 | 42 |
V
S
S
P
V
|
| 19 | Girona | 38 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 39–55 | -16 | 41 |
P
S
P
P
S
|
| 20 | Oviedo | 38 | 6 | 11 | 21 | 26–60 | -34 | 29 |
S
S
S
P
S
|
Champion
Champions League
Europa League
Conference League
Relegation
Player statistics
⚽ Top scorers
1
25
Kylian Mbappé
Real Madrid
2
23
V. Muriqi
Mallorca
3
17
A. Budimir
Osasuna
4
16
Ferran Torres
Barcelona
5
16
Lamine Yamal
Barcelona
6
16
Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid
7
15
Mikel Oyarzabal
Real Sociedad
8
14
Toni Martínez
Alaves
9
14
R. Lewandowski
Barcelona
10
14
Borja Iglesias
Celta Vigo
👟 Assists
1
11
Lamine Yamal
Barcelona
2
10
Luis Milla
Getafe
3
9
Fermín
Barcelona
4
9
A. Güler
Real Madrid
5
9
Pedri
Barcelona
6
8
A. Ezzalzouli
Real Betis
7
8
N. Pépé
Villarreal
8
8
Dani Olmo
Barcelona
9
8
F. Valverde
Real Madrid
10
7
M. Rashford
Barcelona
🟨 Yellow cards
1
13
José Ángel Carmona
Sevilla
2
12
Domingos Duarte
Getafe
3
11
Pol Lozano
Espanyol
4
11
Catena
Osasuna
5
11
Mario Martín
Getafe
6
11
J. Aramburu
Real Sociedad
7
11
L. Agoumé
Sevilla
8
11
Samú Costa
Mallorca
9
11
Pablo Maffeo
Mallorca
10
10
S. Mouriño
Villarreal
Model calibration for this league
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 15 | 55.00% | 53.3% | -1.70% |
| 60–70%% | 12 | 65.00% | 58.3% | -6.70% |
| 70–100%% | 5 | 85.00% | 100.0% | +15.00% |
Based on 32 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Villarreal
|
72 | 57.91 | +14.09 |
|
| 2 |
Barcelona
|
95 | 86.13 | +8.87 |
|
| 3 |
Sevilla
|
46 | 38.76 | +7.24 |
|
| 4 |
Elche
|
49 | 41.80 | +7.20 |
|
| 5 |
Real Sociedad
|
59 | 52.25 | +6.75 |
|
| 6 |
Atletico Madrid
|
62 | 58.14 | +3.86 |
|
| 7 |
Mallorca
|
47 | 43.22 | +3.78 |
|
| 8 |
Real Betis
|
59 | 55.38 | +3.62 |
|
| 9 |
Celta Vigo
|
53 | 49.70 | +3.30 |
|
| 10 |
Getafe
|
32 | 30.34 | +1.66 |
|
| 11 |
Real Madrid
|
77 | 77.44 | -0.44 |
|
| 12 |
Osasuna
|
44 | 45.28 | -1.28 |
|
| 13 |
Alaves
|
44 | 46.22 | -2.22 |
|
| 14 |
Valencia
|
46 | 49.38 | -3.38 |
|
| 15 |
Levante
|
47 | 51.03 | -4.03 |
|
| 16 |
Espanyol
|
43 | 47.62 | -4.62 |
|
| 17 |
Athletic Club
|
43 | 50.38 | -7.38 |
|
| 18 |
Girona
|
39 | 47.53 | -8.53 |
|
| 19 |
Oviedo
|
26 | 35.83 | -9.83 |
|
| 20 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
41 | 52.51 | -11.51 |
|
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for La Liga?
For La Liga, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for La Liga?
Accuracy for La Liga is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for La Liga using per-league historical data.
How are La Liga season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.