League Table
End of season projections
Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 15 Sep 2026
Champion
Champions League
Europa League
Conference League
Relegation
| Team | Zone probability | Projected Pts | Schedule | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
90 (60–112)
pos. ~1.2°
|
C17 · T16
ELO 1532
|
▲1% | ||
|
80 (54–103)
pos. ~2.0°
|
C16 · T17
ELO 1529
|
▼1% | ||
|
64 (34–93)
pos. ~5.3°
|
C17 · T16
ELO 1533
|
▲18% | ||
|
63 (36–89)
pos. ~5.5°
|
C16 · T17
ELO 1543
|
▼4% | ||
|
63 (29–92)
pos. ~5.5°
|
C17 · T16
ELO 1538
|
▼4% | ||
|
55 (29–89)
pos. ~8.6°
|
C16 · T17
ELO 1543
|
▼2% | ||
|
60 (33–86)
pos. ~6.3°
|
C17 · T16
ELO 1542
|
▼3% | ||
|
55 (28–88)
pos. ~8.3°
|
C16 · T17
ELO 1541
|
▼2% | ||
|
50 (24–77)
pos. ~10.9°
|
C16 · T17
ELO 1536
|
▼0% | ||
|
52 (27–78)
pos. ~10.0°
|
C16 · T17
ELO 1543
|
▼1% | ||
|
43 (18–71)
pos. ~14.3°
|
C16 · T17
ELO 1547
|
▼0% | ||
|
43 (18–71)
pos. ~14.3°
|
C16 · T16
ELO 1536
|
▼1% | ||
|
48 (23–77)
pos. ~11.7°
|
C17 · T16
ELO 1535
|
▼0% | ||
|
46 (18–77)
pos. ~13.1°
|
C16 · T17
ELO 1543
|
▼1% | ||
|
42 (17–70)
pos. ~15.2°
|
C16 · T16
ELO 1548
|
▼1% | ||
|
46 (20–74)
pos. ~13.2°
|
C17 · T16
ELO 1529
|
▼2% | ||
|
39 (14–67)
pos. ~16.3°
|
C17 · T16
ELO 1533
|
▼1% | ||
|
45 (19–79)
pos. ~13.5°
|
C17 · T16
ELO 1534
|
▲8% | ||
|
37 (12–67)
pos. ~17.2°
|
C17 · T16
ELO 1537
|
▼1% | ||
|
35 (8–63)
pos. ~17.7°
|
C16 · T17
ELO 1533
|
▼0% |
% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 12 daily simulations.
Upcoming matches
Recent results
Player statistics
Model & advanced data
Model calibration for this league▾
| Probability band | Sample | Expected (mid) | Actual | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60%% | 15 | 55.00% | 53.3% | -1.70% |
| 60–70%% | 12 | 65.00% | 58.3% | -6.70% |
| 70–100%% | 5 | 85.00% | 100.0% | +15.00% |
Based on 32 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration
xG: who scores more (or less) than they deserve▾
| # | Team | Goals | xG | Δ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Atletico Madrid
|
7 | 2.46 | +4.54 | |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
10 | 5.74 | +4.26 | |
| 3 |
Sevilla
|
6 | 3.26 | +2.74 | |
| 4 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
5 | 2.76 | +2.24 | |
| 5 |
Barcelona
|
12 | 10.86 | +1.14 | |
| 6 |
Racing Santander
|
5 | 4.51 | +0.49 | |
| 7 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
4 | 3.51 | +0.49 | |
| 8 |
Alaves
|
5 | 4.56 | +0.44 | |
| 9 |
Levante
|
5 | 4.58 | +0.42 | |
| 10 |
Real Betis
|
4 | 3.60 | +0.40 | |
| 11 |
Athletic Club
|
3 | 2.89 | +0.11 | |
| 12 |
Elche
|
3 | 3.12 | -0.12 | |
| 13 |
Celta Vigo
|
1 | 1.35 | -0.35 | |
| 14 |
Getafe
|
1 | 2.11 | -1.11 | |
| 15 |
Villarreal
|
4 | 5.75 | -1.75 | |
| 16 |
Malaga
|
1 | 2.79 | -1.79 | |
| 17 |
Osasuna
|
3 | 5.05 | -2.05 | |
| 18 |
Valencia
|
1 | 3.07 | -2.07 |
Δ = Goals scored − accumulated xG · green = overperforms, red = underperforms
Frequently Asked Questions
What predictions are available for La Liga?
For La Liga, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.
How accurate are predictions for La Liga?
Accuracy for La Liga is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for La Liga using per-league historical data.
How are La Liga season projections calculated?
Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.