← Leagues

Primera División

Uruguay · Season 2026

2026 2025

72.20%

1X2 accuracy · 18 predictions (3 months)

Matchday 15 of 30 50%

League Table

16 Teams

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF–GA	GD	Pts	Form
1	Racing Montevideo — Promotion	15	9	4	2	23–14	+9	31	S P P P P
2	Deportivo Maldonado	15	9	2	4	24–16	+8	29	S P V V P
3	Albion FC	15	8	4	3	26–16	+10	28	S P V S S
4	Penarol	15	8	3	4	23–16	+7	27	V P V S V
5	Central Espanol	15	7	3	5	23–22	+1	24	S P P V S
6	Atletico Torque	15	6	5	4	22–16	+6	23	V V S V V
7	Club Nacional	15	7	1	7	26–21	+5	22	S P V S V
8	Defensor Sporting	15	5	6	4	13–11	+2	21	S P P P S
9	Liverpool Montevideo	15	5	5	5	20–18	+2	20	V S P V P
10	Wanderers	15	6	2	7	16–21	-5	20	V V P V P
11	Danubio	15	4	6	5	17–21	-4	18	S P P P S
12	Cerro Largo	15	5	2	8	16–19	-3	17	V P P V V
13	Boston River	15	5	2	8	14–20	-6	17	S P P S S
14	Juventud	15	4	3	8	17–22	-5	15	V S P S S
15	Progreso	15	2	4	9	12–23	-11	10	V S S V S
16	Cerro	15	2	4	9	8–24	-16	10	V V S S V
1	Deportivo Maldonado — Promotion	10	8	1	1	20–8	+12	25	S V V V P
2	Racing Montevideo	11	5	5	1	15–9	+6	20	P P V P P
3	Wanderers	11	5	4	2	12–9	+3	19	V V P P V
4	Penarol	11	5	3	3	18–13	+5	18	P P V S V
5	Central Espanol	10	5	2	3	15–12	+3	17	V V V P S
6	Club Nacional	10	5	1	4	15–8	+7	16	S V V V S
7	Atletico Torque	10	5	1	4	17–15	+2	16	V V S S V
8	Defensor Sporting	10	4	3	3	10–9	+1	15	V S S P S
9	Cerro	11	4	3	4	7–7	+0	15	P S V S V
10	Cerro Largo	10	4	2	4	15–10	+5	14	S S V V P
11	Albion FC	11	4	2	5	19–15	+4	14	V V P S S
12	Boston River	11	4	2	5	12–10	+2	14	V V V S P
13	Juventud	11	4	1	6	13–16	-3	13	P V V S S
14	Danubio	10	2	6	2	12–9	+3	12	P S S P P
15	Liverpool Montevideo	10	2	4	4	11–12	-1	10	S V P P S
16	Progreso	11	2	2	7	10–18	-8	8	V S S S V
1	Penarol — Promotion	10	7	1	2	14–6	+8	22	S V V V P
2	Atletico Torque	11	5	4	2	16–10	+6	19	P P V V V
3	Albion FC	10	5	4	1	11–7	+4	19	V V S V P
4	Liverpool Montevideo	11	5	3	3	14–11	+3	18	P S S V V
5	Racing Montevideo	10	5	3	2	11–8	+3	18	V S P P S
6	Club Nacional	11	5	1	5	17–20	-3	16	V S V S P
7	Deportivo Maldonado	11	4	3	4	16–14	+2	15	P V P V S
8	Central Espanol	11	4	3	4	12–14	-2	15	S S S V P
9	Cerro Largo	11	4	2	5	8–11	-3	14	S V S P V
10	Wanderers	10	4	1	5	14–16	-2	13	S S P V V
11	Defensor Sporting	11	1	6	4	7–10	-3	9	P P S P P
12	Juventud	10	2	3	5	12–17	-5	9	P V S P V
13	Danubio	11	2	3	6	8–19	-11	9	V S S P S
14	Progreso	10	2	2	6	7–14	-7	8	S S S V S
15	Boston River	10	2	2	6	7–19	-12	8	S S S P S
16	Cerro	10	1	1	8	6–25	-19	4	S S S S V

Promotion

End of season projections

Monte Carlo simulation · 10,000 simulated seasons · updated 29 Jul 2026

Promotion

#	Team	Projected Pts	Schedule	Trend
1	Racing Montevideo	33 (31–34) pos. ~1.3°	C1 · T0 ELO 1430	▲72%
2	Deportivo Maldonado	31 (29–32) pos. ~2.2°	C1 · T0 ELO 1486	▲28%
3	Albion FC	30 (28–31) pos. ~3.0°	C1 · T0 ELO 1479	·
4	Penarol	29 (27–30) pos. ~3.7°	C1 · T0 ELO 1481	·
5	Central Espanol	26 (24–27) pos. ~5.3°	C1 · T0 ELO 1489	·
6	Atletico Torque	25 (23–26) pos. ~6.2°	C1 · T0 ELO 1509	·
7	Club Nacional	24 (22–25) pos. ~6.8°	C1 · T0 ELO 1451	·
8	Defensor Sporting	23 (21–24) pos. ~8.0°	C1 · T0 ELO 1455	·
9	Liverpool Montevideo	21 (20–23) pos. ~9.5°	C0 · T1 ELO 1507	·
10	Wanderers	21 (20–23) pos. ~9.3°	C0 · T1 ELO 1556	·
11	Danubio	19 (18–21) pos. ~11.4°	C0 · T1 ELO 1513	·
12	Cerro Largo	18 (17–20) pos. ~12.0°	C0 · T1 ELO 1491	·
13	Boston River	18 (17–20) pos. ~12.5°	C0 · T1 ELO 1486	·
14	Juventud	16 (15–18) pos. ~13.8°	C0 · T1 ELO 1542	·
15	Progreso	11 (10–13) pos. ~15.4°	C0 · T1 ELO 1495	·
16	Cerro	11 (10–13) pos. ~15.6°	C0 · T1 ELO 1479	·

% = probability of reaching that zone or better. Each sparkline shows the trend of the most relevant probability for each team over the last 8 daily simulations.

Upcoming matches

Recent results

Model & advanced data

Model calibration for this league▾

Probability band	Sample	Expected (mid)	Actual	Δ
50–60%%	12	55.00%	66.7%	+11.70%
60–70%%	8	65.00%	75.0%	+10.00%

Based on 22 verified predictions · Δ ≤ 5% = excellent calibration

Frequently Asked Questions

What predictions are available for Primera División?

For Primera División, ForzaPitch provides 1X2 win probabilities, expected goals (xG), Over 1.5 and Over 2.5 signals and season projections for title, European qualification and relegation per team.

How accurate are predictions for Primera División?

Accuracy for Primera División is tracked match by match and shown on this page. The model is calibrated specifically for Primera División using per-league historical data.

How are Primera División season projections calculated?

Season projections use 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining fixtures, sampling from match probability distributions to estimate title, Champions League, Europa League and relegation probabilities per team.