Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 6
March 17, 2026 01:00
Match statistics
1
Shots on target
4
1.11
Actual xG
0.69
35%
Possession
65%
4
Corners
5
Pre-match prediction
38.47%
Chapecoense-sc
29.99%
X ←
31.54%
Gremio
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
29.99%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.13
1.11
-1.02
1.35
0.69
-0.66
Chapecoense-sc dominated by xG (1.11 vs 0.69).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
