Champions League
· Round of 16
March 17, 2026 22:00
Match statistics
12
Shots on target
2
1.70
Actual xG
0.52
42%
Possession
58%
10
Corners
8
Pre-match prediction
52.25%
Arsenal ←
29.07%
X
18.68%
Bayer
we assigned to the actual result (Arsenal)
52.25%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.29
1.70
+0.41
0.71
0.52
-0.19
Arsenal dominated by xG (1.70 vs 0.52).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
