Champions League
· Round of 16
March 18, 2026 19:45
Match statistics
13
Shots on target
5
4.29
Actual xG
1.52
63%
Possession
37%
6
Corners
2
Pre-match prediction
54.7%
Barcelona ←
23.77%
X
21.53%
Newcastle
we assigned to the actual result (Barcelona)
54.7%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.79
4.29
+2.5
1.37
1.52
+0.15
Barcelona dominated by xG (4.29 vs 1.52).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
