Champions League
· Round of 16
March 18, 2026 22:00
Match statistics
11
Shots on target
6
2.44
Actual xG
1.04
51%
Possession
49%
7
Corners
7
Pre-match prediction
28.64%
Tottenham ←
23.73%
X
47.63%
Atletico
we assigned to the actual result (Tottenham)
28.64%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.51
2.44
+0.93
2.24
1.04
-1.2
Tottenham dominated by xG (2.44 vs 1.04).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
