Champions League
· Round of 16
March 18, 2026 22:00
✓Model correct — prediction Bayern München
Match statistics
8
Shots on target
8
3.61
Actual xG
2.30
71%
Possession
29%
6
Corners
3
Pre-match prediction
74.21%
Bayern ←
14.27%
X
11.52%
Atalanta
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München)
74.21%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.18
3.61
+0.43
0.62
2.30
+1.68
Bayern München dominated by xG (3.61 vs 2.30).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
