Serie B
· Regular Season - 31
March 17, 2026 21:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Monza, result Pareggio
Match statistics
0
Shots on target
6
0.50
Actual xG
1.19
32%
Possession
68%
3
Corners
4
Pre-match prediction
12.28%
Reggiana
13.51%
X ←
74.22%
Monza
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
13.51%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.40
0.50
+0.1
2.56
1.19
-1.37
Monza dominated by xG (1.19 vs 0.50).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
