Serie B
· Regular Season - 31
March 18, 2026 20:00
✓Model correct — prediction Frosinone
Match statistics
10
Shots on target
3
2.24
Actual xG
0.62
61%
Possession
39%
11
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
62.58%
Frosinone ←
22.43%
X
14.99%
Bari
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Frosinone)
62.58%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.20
2.24
+0.04
1.26
0.62
-0.64
Frosinone dominated by xG (2.24 vs 0.62).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
