Europa League
· Round of 16
March 19, 2026 19:45
✗Model wrong — prediction Lyon, result Celta Vigo vince
Match statistics
1
Shots on target
8
0.24
Actual xG
1.54
35%
Possession
65%
1
Corners
6
Pre-match prediction
56.19%
Lyon
22.2%
X
21.61%
Celta ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Celta Vigo)
21.61%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.10
0.24
-1.86
1.08
1.54
+0.47
Celta Vigo dominated by xG (1.54 vs 0.24).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
