Europa League
· Round of 16
March 19, 2026 19:45
Match statistics
6
Shots on target
3
1.95
Actual xG
1.06
46%
Possession
54%
3
Corners
5
Pre-match prediction
33.09%
SC ←
22.93%
X
43.98%
Genk
we assigned to the actual result (SC Freiburg)
33.09%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.68
1.95
+1.27
1.96
1.06
-0.9
SC Freiburg dominated by xG (1.95 vs 1.06).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
