Europa League
· Round of 16
March 19, 2026 19:45
Match statistics
3
Shots on target
8
0.67
Actual xG
2.03
52%
Possession
48%
4
Corners
11
Pre-match prediction
38.98%
FC
26.65%
X
34.37%
Nottingham ←
we assigned to the actual result (Nottingham Forest)
34.37%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.66
0.67
-1.0
2.14
2.03
-0.11
Nottingham Forest dominated by xG (2.03 vs 0.67).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
