Europa League
· Round of 16
March 19, 2026 22:00
Match statistics
3
Shots on target
3
1.80
Actual xG
0.34
52%
Possession
48%
5
Corners
5
Pre-match prediction
47.81%
Aston ←
27.21%
X
24.99%
Lille
we assigned to the actual result (Aston Villa)
47.81%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.54
1.80
+0.26
0.95
0.34
-0.61
Aston Villa dominated by xG (1.80 vs 0.34).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
