Conference League
· Round of 16
March 19, 2026 19:45
Match statistics
6
Shots on target
1
1.44
Actual xG
0.48
54%
Possession
46%
5
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
29.84%
FSV ←
41.54%
X
28.62%
Sigma
we assigned to the actual result (FSV Mainz 05)
29.84%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.32
1.44
+1.12
0.63
0.48
-0.15
FSV Mainz 05 dominated by xG (1.44 vs 0.48).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.