Conference League
· Round of 16
March 19, 2026 22:00
Match statistics
1
Shots on target
5
0.72
Actual xG
1.91
44%
Possession
56%
5
Corners
7
Pre-match prediction
31.63%
Sparta
22.92%
X
45.45%
AZ ←
we assigned to the actual result (AZ Alkmaar)
45.45%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.69
0.72
+0.03
2.64
1.91
-0.74
AZ Alkmaar dominated by xG (1.91 vs 0.72).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
