Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 27
March 20, 2026 22:15
Match statistics
8
Shots on target
2
4.40
Actual xG
0.65
53%
Possession
47%
6
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
42.79%
Estrela ←
31.78%
X
25.44%
Casa
we assigned to the actual result (Estrela)
42.79%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.09
4.40
+3.31
0.75
0.65
-0.1
Estrela dominated by xG (4.40 vs 0.65).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
