Eredivisie
· Regular Season - 28
March 20, 2026 21:00
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
3
1.52
Actual xG
1.03
50%
Possession
50%
6
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
26.58%
Heracles
34.83%
X ←
38.59%
Excelsior
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
34.83%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.50
1.52
+1.02
1.03
1.03
+0.0
Heracles dominated by xG (1.52 vs 1.03).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
