Ligue 1
· Regular Season - 27
March 21, 2026 18:00
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
2
1.15
Actual xG
0.40
42%
Possession
58%
1
Corners
4
Pre-match prediction
44.46%
Toulouse ←
23.17%
X
32.38%
Lorient
we assigned to the actual result (Toulouse)
44.46%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.76
1.15
-0.61
1.42
0.40
-1.02
Toulouse dominated by xG (1.15 vs 0.40).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
