Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 27
March 21, 2026 20:00
✓Model correct — prediction Benfica
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
2
2.02
Actual xG
0.77
49%
Possession
51%
4
Corners
8
Pre-match prediction
72.63%
Benfica ←
15.65%
X
11.72%
Guimaraes
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Benfica)
72.63%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.83
2.02
-0.81
1.24
0.77
-0.47
Benfica dominated by xG (2.02 vs 0.77).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
