Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 27
March 21, 2026 22:30
✗Model wrong — prediction Tondela, result Pareggio
Match statistics
3
Shots on target
2
0.64
Actual xG
0.80
60%
Possession
40%
7
Corners
6
Pre-match prediction
53.21%
Tondela
30.14%
X ←
16.65%
AVS
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
30.14%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.25
0.64
-0.61
0.44
0.80
+0.36
xG dominance was balanced (0.64 – 0.80).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
