Serie A
· Regular Season - 30
March 21, 2026 16:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Parma, result Cremonese vince
Match statistics
1
Shots on target
4
0.34
Actual xG
0.72
52%
Possession
48%
3
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
54.76%
Parma
27.03%
X
18.2%
Cremonese ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Cremonese)
18.2%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.44
0.34
-1.1
0.66
0.72
+0.06
Cremonese dominated by xG (0.72 vs 0.34).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
