Ligue 1
· Regular Season - 27
March 22, 2026 18:15
✗Model wrong — prediction Rennes, result Pareggio
Match statistics
8
Shots on target
2
1.52
Actual xG
0.33
68%
Possession
32%
8
Corners
2
Pre-match prediction
74.78%
Rennes
16.45%
X ←
8.77%
Metz
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
16.45%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.34
1.52
-0.82
0.68
0.33
-0.35
Rennes dominated by xG (1.52 vs 0.33).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
