Serie A
· Regular Season - 30
March 22, 2026 16:00
✓Model correct — prediction Atalanta
Match statistics
3
Shots on target
3
1.02
Actual xG
1.11
60%
Possession
40%
2
Corners
4
Pre-match prediction
76.8%
Atalanta ←
16.08%
X
7.12%
Hellas
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Atalanta)
76.8%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.25
1.02
-1.23
0.52
1.11
+0.6
xG dominance was balanced (1.02 – 1.11).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
