Serie A
· Regular Season - 30
March 22, 2026 19:00
✓Model correct — prediction AS Roma
Match statistics
2
Shots on target
3
0.84
Actual xG
1.08
67%
Possession
33%
10
Corners
2
Pre-match prediction
59.68%
AS ←
25.88%
X
14.44%
Lecce
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (AS Roma)
59.68%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.52
0.84
-0.68
0.72
1.08
+0.36
xG dominance was balanced (0.84 – 1.08).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
