Serie A
· Regular Season - 30
March 22, 2026 21:45
✗Model wrong — prediction Inter, result Pareggio
Match statistics
6
Shots on target
4
2.28
Actual xG
1.22
40%
Possession
60%
3
Corners
5
Pre-match prediction
23.81%
Fiorentina
19.8%
X ←
56.4%
Inter
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
19.8%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.06
2.28
+1.22
2.18
1.22
-0.96
Fiorentina dominated by xG (2.28 vs 1.22).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
