Champions League
· Round of 16
March 17, 2026 19:45
Match statistics
14
Shots on target
3
3.78
Actual xG
0.54
66%
Possession
34%
16
Corners
4
Pre-match prediction
34.07%
Sporting ←
28.53%
X
37.4%
Bodo/Glimt
we assigned to the actual result (Sporting CP)
34.07%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.88
3.78
+2.9
2.19
0.54
-1.65
Sporting CP dominated by xG (3.78 vs 0.54).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
