Champions League
· Round of 16
March 17, 2026 22:00
Match statistics
9
Shots on target
5
1.26
Actual xG
1.09
45%
Possession
55%
9
Corners
3
Pre-match prediction
34.12%
Chelsea
24.15%
X
41.73%
Paris ←
we assigned to the actual result (Paris Saint Germain)
41.73%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.72
1.26
-0.46
1.89
1.09
-0.8
xG dominance was balanced (1.26 – 1.09).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
