Champions League
· Round of 16
March 17, 2026 22:00
Match statistics
8
Shots on target
7
1.91
Actual xG
2.93
47%
Possession
53%
9
Corners
6
Pre-match prediction
31.58%
Manchester
21.72%
X
46.7%
Real ←
we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid)
46.7%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.53
1.91
+1.38
1.92
2.93
+1.01
Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.93 vs 1.91).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
