Europa League
· Round of 16
March 19, 2026 22:00
Match statistics
4
Shots on target
6
1.52
Actual xG
1.55
36%
Possession
64%
4
Corners
11
Pre-match prediction
52.76%
FC ←
21.7%
X
25.54%
VfB
we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto)
52.76%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.56
1.52
-1.04
1.89
1.55
-0.34
xG dominance was balanced (1.52 – 1.55).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
