Conference League
· Round of 16
March 19, 2026 22:00
Match statistics
1
Shots on target
7
0.43
Actual xG
2.14
55%
Possession
45%
4
Corners
5
Pre-match prediction
43.01%
Shakhtar
28.46%
X
28.53%
Lech ←
we assigned to the actual result (Lech Poznan)
28.53%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.39
0.43
-1.96
1.24
2.14
+0.9
Lech Poznan dominated by xG (2.14 vs 0.43).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.