2. Bundesliga
· Regular Season - 27
March 21, 2026 14:00
Match statistics
10
Shots on target
2
3.28
Actual xG
0.44
58%
Possession
42%
9
Corners
1
Pre-match prediction
49.47%
SV ←
29.61%
X
20.92%
Arminia
we assigned to the actual result (SV Elversberg)
49.47%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.26
3.28
+2.02
0.89
0.44
-0.45
SV Elversberg dominated by xG (3.28 vs 0.44).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.