Primeira Liga
· Regular Season - 27
March 21, 2026 17:30
Match statistics
2
Shots on target
2
0.59
Actual xG
1.69
49%
Possession
51%
3
Corners
7
Pre-match prediction
36.34%
Moreirense
24.31%
X
39.35%
Arouca ←
we assigned to the actual result (Arouca)
39.35%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.17
0.59
-0.58
1.66
1.69
+0.03
Arouca dominated by xG (1.69 vs 0.59).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
